Comment by Francesc Riverola on September 27, 2011 at 11:08am

lol :)

Comment by LuckyDice on September 27, 2011 at 1:02pm

After watching that dude talking about a traders mind set, the future ending savings and the words protect your assets....i feel pretty good since we all got a means if we know what we are doing to be a winner when every one else is a losing. Right or wrong we all know how to short.

Comment by cristotrading on September 27, 2011 at 1:03pm

Is Alessio Rastani actually one of The Yes Men?
http://www.thejournal.ie/is-alessio-rastani-actually-one-of-the-yes...

Comment by 2ndSkiesForex on September 27, 2011 at 3:38pm

I have to agree with him and his overall sentiments on the market.  All of the people in my financial and trading circle are pretty much thinking the same thing while preparing both defensively and offensively.  

Remember, in recessions, depressions, crashes (whatever you want to call them), wealth is not merely destroyed, it is only transferred to the smart, the prepared and the wealthy (who usually are the first two).  

Unfortunately most of the media filters information (especially in the US more than anywhere else) to where people become mis-informed, blinded, mis-led, or simply un-informed about what is really going on.  

Unfortunate, but a truth nonetheless.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Comment by 2ndSkiesForex on September 27, 2011 at 6:29pm

Hmm.....where do I begin.

First off, I think its naive to be using the chart as a gauge to whether the Eurozone, or Euro will implode.  Institutions, hedge funds, multi-nationals, etc. aren't just placing their bets in the euro or looking to it as their gauge.  They are looking at treasuries, CDS's, other safe-haven currencies, precious metals, and other instruments in relating to this situation.

But lets just go over some interesting facts about this;
1) Credit Markets - if you look at them, they are pretty much communicating a greek default is a certainty at this point.  1yr GGGB's are pricing in at 135% which if you can find me a country with 1yr yields that high and didn't default, i'd be surprised.

the problem has to do with debt and everyone is exposed to it.  Heard of a couple of banks lately called Credit Agricole and BNP?  Those two banks are exposed to greek debt up to €30B.  They are also leveraged between 69-94$ with capital ratios at best hovering around 1.1-2%.  Keep in mind, these are far below the levels the american banks were when Lehman went down and look what happened here.

2) TARP - there is no TARP available in europe and France's GDP is 4x less than their entire banking assets so they cannot bail out their banks.  

So you have no TARP available and French banks leveraged to the hilt so just think how fast defaults can run through a system like that.

3) Subprime borrowers - in Europe, they are not private debt, but sovereign nations who've all had to prop up greece who actually lied about its debt just to get in the EU.  So far, greece is the only one propped up with some help sent to Ireland and Portugal.  The reason why the EFSF was setup (not fully established yet), is Europe saw how things worked out in the US and came up with their own TARP but its too little too late.

Germany doesn't want to fully TARP the other nations, especially French and Italian banks and understandably so - they'd be doing fine without their neighbors debt.

So, this puts it all back on the ECB and who is the most exposed to them?  Germany.  Thats why German CDS's are about 2x as large as they are in the US (90-50bps).  So if Germany is the most exposed to the ECB who is holding massive amounts of the soverign debt, who could raise the Euros to clear up the balance sheets?  Nobody, which means nationalization of several banks and some EMU members exiting stage left.  

Considering the circumstances, I don't see people flocking into europe anytime soon.

Greek bank deposits fell 19% and 40$ in Ireland over the last year.  Banks are cutting lending and deposits are leaving Germany (the strongest of them all) down 12% on the year.  Any sovereign defaults and the ECB gets hammered since they are holding countries bonds as collateral.  

Any more borrowing or bail-outs comes out of the taxpayers and I doubt other europeans want to pay their taxes towards funding Greek debt.  

On top of all this, all the wealthy families are moving their money out of Greece (and Europe for that matter) because they are afraid of a default and tax increases.  

Thus, any default by greece = mass exodus of funds (which is already happening) out of the Eurozone and bad for the Euro.  

To sum it up;  Greek Default = Banks Defaulting = €'s in large amounts flowing into safe haven assets.   

Ever wonder why they are trying to put together a €2 Trillion package together?  Why in the world would you need to put together that much if the problem wasn't grave?

Thus, I think its naive to be looking at the chart of the EURUSD and feel like that is going to communicate all the intricacies of this situation.

But a lively discussion indeed.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Comment by Katia Zajcew on September 28, 2011 at 6:41am

The funeral home is waiting and preparing for someone's dead

Comment by 2ndSkiesForex on September 28, 2011 at 5:58pm

yeah, heard about this from another site...have to say though...i liked his tie :-)
but overall, most of the people in my trading/financial circle agree with him (except for the Goldman Sachs part which we thought was cheesy)...but overall, we agree with his analysis about the smart money not buying the rescue plan

 

Comment by 2ndSkiesForex on September 28, 2011 at 8:18pm

that would have made sense...however...most of the traditional media is filtered and doesn't want to show whats really going on...they are more concerned with ratings then really exposing whats going on in the world financially...so not surprising people didn't like what he had to say because it was relatively honest and direct.

 

the one part that was a little strange was when he talked about how people could protect themselves...his strategies in that moment didn't sound too sophisticated so that was a little weird in my book

 

but se la vie

Comment by D U Eddie on September 29, 2011 at 6:39am

He thinks he's the new Ashraf, came over a bit arrogant , me thinks..lol

Comment by Francesc Riverola on September 29, 2011 at 8:41am

Now seems he declared to The Telegraph that he is just an attention seeker....

BBC financial expert Alessio Rastani: 'I'm an attention seeker not ...

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