Derivatives pricing in extreme fears about the euro
by The Wall Street Journal
Foreign exchange options are sending out strong signals that investors expect a sharp fall in the euro's value against the dollar over the next month, with a key benchmark fear gauge breaching record highs on Wednesday.
The so-called one month risk-reversal indicator--a measure of the weight of negative options bets on the euro against the positive bets--jumped to 4 volatility points, surpassing levels seen at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008, when the indicator was trading just below 3.5 volatility points.
The increased fear about a sharp drop in the euro comes after European policy makers changed their rhetoric about a country potentially leaving the monetary union, stoking fears of a currency breakup.