Westpac - "AUD/USD: The calendar isn’t pivotal this week, leaving AUD/USD to gyrate anywhere from 1.0325 to 1.0565 on headlines from Asia (probably negative) and Europe (positive?). RBA Oct easing pricing shouldn’t fall much below 60%.
NZD/USD: Global central bank stimulus should support the NZD for some time but the market needs a fresh catalyst to break above 0.8350 major resistance. Upon such a break, we would target 0.8470 next. Meanwhile, the main negative risks are Spanish and Greek fiscal developments, and a speculative market pricing much of the good global and domestic news into the NZD.
EUR/USD: The pair should see good two-way price action as rumours fly over Spain’s will they/won’t they tease on the bailout application. We lean towards buying dips around 1.2850, as the unwind of EUR spec shorts continues, driven by the clear reduction in Eurozone tail risks. Greek talk will swirl but no major decisions will be made before the 8 Oct Eurogroup meeting so don’t jump at shadows.
USD/JPY: The only qualm about the BoJ’s aggressive QE increase is that it doesn’t kick in until Q1 13, while Fed QE3 is already under way. The dispute with China also muddies the waters but we still see USD/JPY as a buy on dips."