Westpac - "We still view USD’s underlying tone as soft but it is far from a simple ‘sell dollar’ story as e.g. JPY and GBP weakness persists. RBA, BoE and ECB meetings to set the week’s tone.
AUD/USD: Mid-1.03s were tested and could be again Wed/Thu if Aust retail and/or jobs data disappoint. But a likely cautiously up-beat RBA (Tue & Fri) should see the Aussie supported on dips and probably re-test 1.0500.
NZD/USD: Despite the volatility over the past few months NZD/USD remains in an uptrend as long as 0.8215 is not breached. The next target is 0.8570.
EUR/USD: Dips remain shallow ahead of ECB meeting Thu where Draghi should be up-beat again. Spec long positioning appears to be moderate at this stage. Target now at 1.38.
USD/JPY: We continue to see danger mid-Feb when BoJ decision coincides with G20 Moscow meeting. Lack of fresh easing steps should knock the pair back but until then it looks well supported, albeit running ahead of fundamentals.
Asia. KRW, MYR and TWD, have had somewhat of a reprieve after the US data on Friday. Still the continued push higher in both USD/JPY and US yields may leave the market reluctant to push USD/Asia pairs lower. INR, TWD (on net equity inflows) and PHP (on buoyant growth and equity sentiment) remain the safer bets within the region in our view."