Weekly Price Action Chart Outlook | Sept. 23rd-28th
EURUSD
After having its first weekly bearish close in six, the Euro ended the week posting an inverted pin bar that is also doubling as an inside bar. It has to be noted a bullish inverted pin bar in a bearish pullback is a failed attempt to rally. However, even though the rally failed, it indicates there is some buying interest off the 1.2920 lows from Thursday.
The wick of the inverted pin bar is near the Thursday highs at 1.3058 so we have an intraday range that needs to be cleared. Intraday players can look for a possible long off the 1.2920 lows while short term bears can short around 1.3058 on weakness. Otherwise, bulls can look for a pullback towards the dynamic support (also Sept. 7th swing highs) at 1.2815 to take a long for a possible resumption of the uptrend.
NZDUSD
After rejecting last week off of .8350 forming a pin bar reversal, the pair has mostly consolidated in a pretty clean range between .8223 (last weeks low) and the .8353 highs so nice plays for both bulls and bears until the range clears. It should be noted the pair formed a dueling swords pattern to end last week so a pullback towards the .8223 lows is likely. If the intraday price action looks corrective, I'll look for longs off the weekly lows along with shorts towards the weekly highs should the intraday charts confirm.
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Comment by talisman on September 25, 2012 at 2:41am
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if u had taken a long off 12920 would you have taken it when the market first touched it ? where would u have placed your initial stop ? just below 12920, say around 12893 for a risk just under 30 say ?
i traded this but did get stopped out by a pip or two. basically i tell myself thats the way she goes once and a while and just put it behind me but since you talked about essentially the same entry i took your input and opinion might be of some value. maybe i missed some thing, maybe i could change something, or maybe its just one of them things , you trade correctly and lose anyways.
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Comment by 2ndSkiesForex on September 25, 2012 at 10:45am -
Hello Talisman,
This is a very good question.
I actually didn't take it off the level because (as mentioned in the post) I wanted to see how price action reacted to it and showed weakness.
In cases like this, I almost always look for 'weakness' or 'corrective price action' which indicates the selling orders are getting absorbed. I mentioned this in both posts about looking for weakness at those levels.
If you look at the selling leading into it, it was highly impulsive on the first move down.
I actually didn't get a buy signal till after it broke below the weekly level, then above it, then below it again, then back above it. Many of my students actually picked up this signal as well which means they are starting to get it.
Anyways, I wrote an article about trading levels, price action setups - all in relation to context. I almost never just trade a level purely on its own, and always have to take into context two main things;
1) how did price action relate to it before?
2) how is price action behaving in real time heading into it?
When you can learn to read these two things, then trading off of levels or pin bar signals, or whatever systems you use become much more effective.
Anyways, hope this helps and feel free to check out the article.
Kind Regards,
Chris
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well explained thanks.
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