Looking back at the structure of the price action, the bounce off the yearly lows looks rather corrective in nature, even though there pair was extremely oversold. The selling was highly impulsive, while the buying (while having its moments), in the larger scheme of things is more corrective in nature. You can see this reflected in the angle of the price action behind the selling and buying legs. This tells us the bulls while having short term control, still are not the dominant party and we were reminded of that on Thursday as one day of selling took out the last 5+ days of gains.
The short term resistance formed above 1.2700 is a good area to sell any rallies as the bears will likely make a second attempt to take out the yearly lows in the near future. Bulls can wait for 1.2445 or 1.2300 before entering the frey.
After forming a rare V-bottom, the pair has gone timid in its recovery even though the Tenkan shows consistent short term momentum and has crossed the Kijun (weak upward cross). What stands out for us is the massive Kumo ahead of pair which would make a full blown reversal difficult at least and we think unlikely.
The Chikou also has a lot ahead of it, first needing to cross the price line, which also is where the Tenkan is parked. This could market the next rejection area for the pair so watch the Chikou for clues. But should it make it past these two defenders, it still has to clear the Kijun while price will have to clear the Kumo, stacking the chips against it.
Using Ichimoku Time theory, the pair has already bounced almost two sections, so we could be seeing a reversal here soon. Should it continue its work higher, then a reversal would more likely manifest towards the Span A of the Kumo which would more likely end up being a one period (three sections) move before turning south and taking aim at the yearly lows again. Bears can look to reject off of the Kumo or around 102.12 while conservative bulls will need to wait sub 99.00 (Kijun line) before buying, with aggressive bulls entering just above 100 targeting a handful of pips shy of 101.
After forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern, the pair has climbed for 4 days in a row now, entering the thick kumo in the process. Although the Chikou has crossed the price line, tenkan and kijun, it still has a large Kumo to work through, along with price. We are anticipating possible sellers around 81.50 which would be the top of the Kumo and a double top from late April, thus a good location for this to reject back. It is interesting to note how the tenkan and kijun have gone flat when the price action entered the Kumo. Bulls could make a play around 80 for entering small longs targeting the upside levels mentioned.
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After climbing consistently from the pin bar lows, the pair ran right into a key level we mentioned in our forex market commentary last week. Many of our price action traders got in on a lower time frame rejection off this level making some solid pips in the process with very little risk. 1.0221 should likely hold any new upside attempts, but if it gets there, we'd be open to selling again baring the price action looks weak heading into it. The parity level is the short term line in the sand for the bulls, so if this goes, 9900 should be next in line.
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