EURUSD
Looking back at the structure of the price action, the bounce off the yearly lows looks rather corrective in nature, even though there pair was extremely oversold. The selling was highly impulsive, while the buying (while having its moments), in the larger scheme of things is more corrective in nature. You can see this reflected in the angle of the price action behind the selling and buying legs. This tells us the bulls while having short term control, still are not the dominant party and we were reminded of that on Thursday as one day of selling took out the last 5+ days of gains.
The short term resistance formed above 1.2700 is a good area to sell any rallies as the bears will likely make a second attempt to take out the yearly lows in the near future. Bulls can wait for 1.2445 or 1.2300 before entering the frey.
EURJPY
After forming a rare V-bottom, the pair has gone timid in its recovery even though the Tenkan shows consistent short term momentum and has crossed the Kijun (weak upward cross). What stands out for us is the massive Kumo ahead of pair which would make a full blown reversal difficult at least and we think unlikely.
The Chikou also has a lot ahead of it, first needing to cross the price line, which also is where the Tenkan is parked. This could market the next rejection area for the pair so watch the Chikou for clues. But should it make it past these two defenders, it still has to clear the Kijun while price will have to clear the Kumo, stacking the chips against it.
Using Ichimoku Time theory, the pair has already bounced almost two sections, so we could be seeing a reversal here soon. Should it continue its work higher, then a reversal would more likely manifest towards the Span A of the Kumo which would more likely end up being a one period (three sections) move before turning south and taking aim at the yearly lows again. Bears can look to reject off of the Kumo or around 102.12 while conservative bulls will need to wait sub 99.00 (Kijun line) before buying, with aggressive bulls entering just above 100 targeting a handful of pips shy of 101.
USDJPY
After forming an inverted head and shoulders pattern, the pair has climbed for 4 days in a row now, entering the thick kumo in the process. Although the Chikou has crossed the price line, tenkan and kijun, it still has a large Kumo to work through, along with price. We are anticipating possible sellers around 81.50 which would be the top of the Kumo and a double top from late April, thus a good location for this to reject back. It is interesting to note how the tenkan and kijun have gone flat when the price action entered the Kumo. Bulls could make a play around 80 for entering small longs targeting the upside levels mentioned.
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AUDUSD
After climbing consistently from the pin bar lows, the pair ran right into a key level we mentioned in our forex market commentary last week. Many of our price action traders got in on a lower time frame rejection off this level making some solid pips in the process with very little risk. 1.0221 should likely hold any new upside attempts, but if it gets there, we'd be open to selling again baring the price action looks weak heading into it. The parity level is the short term line in the sand for the bulls, so if this goes, 9900 should be next in line.
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Comment by 2ndSkiesForex on June 25, 2012 at 1:04pm Hello Dimitar,
Glad you liked it. Any chart stick out in particular?
Kind Regards,
Chris
Comment by paul chijioke okeke on June 25, 2012 at 3:05pm hi Sir,you mention something about USJPY currently trading low.how do you see the resumtion on up trend from which price sir will the up trend resume?
Comment by 2ndSkiesForex on June 25, 2012 at 3:43pm Hello Paul,
In the commentary I mention how the price is in the Kumo at the moment, and will need to clear the 81.50 area which is the Kumo top and a double top area before the uptrend will resume in full. There could be sellers waiting up there and ichimoku analysis says this is the most likely area. But below 79.50 will add more bearish momentum to it and the bulls will need to wait till about 79 before getting back in.
Hope this helps.
Kind Regards,
Chris
Comment by paul chijioke okeke on June 26, 2012 at 11:17am hi Chris,looking @ UJ since 79.50 has broken and it got to 79.24 where do you think the bull will take place to get to where ichimoku's target before the bear will come in again.Thanx you great in fx market.
Comment by 2ndSkiesForex on June 26, 2012 at 3:50pm Hello Paul,
From an Ichimoku perspective, on the daily chart, there is support at the Kijun which lines up just above 79. there is also some support around 78.65, and 77.90. So those are possible levels where bulls may get back in.
But overall using the daily chart, the ichimoku picture is more bearish than bullish. Upside levels using ichimoku would be the Tenkan line, 80 which is where the Span A is, or the recent swing highs at 80.50.
That is some basic analysis using Ichimoku.
Hope this helps.
Kind Regards,
Chris
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