USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Monday (9/12/2011) has continued its trend-breaking rise to hit key resistance around the 0.8900 price region before stalling in its dramatic bullishness of the past week. This occurs after a strong and swift bullish surge early last week broke out above an important downtrend resistance line that had been in place since the June 2010 high. This breakout was a highly significant move that has brought price well above its recent record lows. Now that price action has reached this key 0.8900 resistance, price is yet again at a critical juncture. A break to the upside, which would continue the bullish breakout momentum and add further confirmation to an overall change in trend for the pair, could target further upside around the 0.9300 resistance region. A turn back to the downside, which would represent a pullback in the bullish surge, could target strong downside support around the 0.8550 price region.
(Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.)
James Chen, CTA, CMT
Director of Technical Research and Education