US Non-Farm Payroll Key Level @ 54K (How will it impact EURUSD & S&P500?)
US Non-Farm Payroll will likely impact EURUSD & S&P500 as momentum is likely to continue decelerating into the key level at 54k (2011 low), potentially renewing safe haven flows back into the USD and compounding EU contagion pressure.
HAPPY "NFP" Greetings Enlightened Friends,
SEE Exclusive CNBC Squawk Box Media interview and 3 KEY market charts, with outline commentary (below):
1.) US NON FARM PAYROLL DECELERATION
+ Loss of momentum since early 2012.
+ Pressured by DeMark exhaustion signal & multi-year ceiling (275-340K).
+ Key downside level at 54K (2011 Low)
+ BIG Divergence in market expectations range 180-75K.
2.) LATEST US DOLLAR GAIN LED BY SAFE HAVEN FLOWS
+ 5% gain in just 3 weeks (MAY).
+ Record net long positions led by safe haven flows.
+ Probability favours a healthy pull back.
+ BUT negative employment numbers would intensify concerns about
economic recovery and renew flight to safety.
+ EU contagion following French & Greek elections
already supports upside pressure on US dollar.
+ EUR/USD Key Level at 1.2130 & 1.2000.
3.) S&P500 REVERSAL NEARS KEY LEVEL
+ Key level at 1282-1248.
+ 200-Day Average & 50% retracement of the 2011 bull trend cycle.
+ Further US dollar gains provides further pressure on
large cap stocks as they lose their export competitiveness.
Questions & Feedback are welcome.
“Enlightenment Through Realised Knowledge”
Best regards,
Ron William, CMT, MSTA+
Technical Strategist
MIG Bank, Switzerland
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Comment by Karunesh on May 30, 2012 at 5:01am -
Hello..I'm a newbie..So I think you won't mind me asking if the NFP is below expectation will it bullish for GBP/USD or bearish..If possible can you explain it also..Thanks in advance.
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Comment by Keith Shaw on May 30, 2012 at 5:40am -
Some Interesting Charts and Observations Ron, Thanks For Posting.
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Comment by Peter jcp on May 30, 2012 at 10:57am -
Hi Ron - I know we have the Non Farm Employment change out tomorrow (Thursday) and then the main NFP out the following Friday on June 8th.
In years gone by NFP was judged as the main news of the month and you would expect 100-300 pip moves that day based on their results. However, this year they have been a bit of a"damp squid" and not having the "Freaky Friday" effect some traders either loved - or hate - and stay out all together.
With us near the end of May and then the UK having two Bank Holidays off next Monday and Tuesday - the markets might not really be starting to review themselves until the middle of the next week and then that is so near to NFP Friday
We have record net long positions and of course the reverse in the Euro and other pairs with every trader and their "dog" now thinking more down and the possibility of under 1.2200 and 1.2000 etc.
So are you advising the MIG bank to wait until NFP on their next major decisions and to carry on with their existing main trades ? :-)
Or is it June 4th and business as normal and the technicals saying - change track ? :-)
Regards
Peter
Comment
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