US Non-Farm Payroll will likely impact EURUSD & S&P500 as momentum is likely to continue decelerating into the key level at 54k (2011 low), potentially renewing safe haven flows back into the USD and compounding EU contagion pressure.
HAPPY "NFP" Greetings Enlightened Friends,
SEE Exclusive CNBC Squawk Box Media interview and 3 KEY market charts, with outline commentary (below):
1.) US NON FARM PAYROLL DECELERATION
+ Loss of momentum since early 2012.
+ Pressured by DeMark exhaustion signal & multi-year ceiling (275-340K).
+ Key downside level at 54K (2011 Low)
+ BIG Divergence in market expectations range 180-75K.
2.) LATEST US DOLLAR GAIN LED BY SAFE HAVEN FLOWS
+ 5% gain in just 3 weeks (MAY).
+ Record net long positions led by safe haven flows.
+ Probability favours a healthy pull back.
+ BUT negative employment numbers would intensify concerns about
economic recovery and renew flight to safety.
+ EU contagion following French & Greek elections
already supports upside pressure on US dollar.
+ EUR/USD Key Level at 1.2130 & 1.2000.
3.) S&P500 REVERSAL NEARS KEY LEVEL
+ Key level at 1282-1248.
+ 200-Day Average & 50% retracement of the 2011 bull trend cycle.
+ Further US dollar gains provides further pressure on
large cap stocks as they lose their export competitiveness.
Questions & Feedback are welcome.
“Enlightenment Through Realised Knowledge”
Ron William, CMT, MSTA+
MIG Bank, Switzerland