US DollaR tO EaSe – GoLD to GaiN – ApR 12

After two days of uncertainty European market made some recovery, as regions bond yield gained and its stock market made upward adjustment, which was largely supported by banking share recovery.

More importantly market is still looking for direction, as too many statements and officials are involved to defend and counter situation in Europe, which is often confusing. But bottom line is that Europe’s financial market is in big trouble, which will remain unresolved for many years.

It requires austerity measure, it needs to reduce deficit, it needs cheap funding, it needs to generate revenue to meet expense, and it needs to create more job opportunities. Half of the regions bank need funding to raise capital and therefore, its needs more time due to its unending list of things to do and hence Europe will continue to make adjusting entries and print more notes, increase the size of its balance sheet to buy more time. But the biggest worry should be that where and how does it end?

Signs emanating from FED beige book are positive for the US Economy, which overall cover 12-region. Paring oil prices, which is the concerning factor the report suggest that key areas such as manufacturing, professional businesses and freights volumes are showing satisfactory growth if not robust.     

But FED’s second in command Janet Yellen has strength the argument of low interest rate with her dovish approach by saying that economy will continue to grow only gradually and that employment rate will remain high for years. But one positive note in hear ending remarks she made was that she is prepared to make policy adjustment in response to incoming information, which means positive data could shift her sentiment.

Meanwhile, surprisingly strong Australian job data reduced the odds for next month rate cut that helping AUD to surge, but as I said in my weekly report that Friday’s Chinese GDP number will play big role in determining the future economic trend.

Market will be watching developments in Europe quieter condition will see USD losing some of its gloss. Currencies and gold is likely to make gains until New York.     


Gold @ $ 1658.40 = Today we could see gold making some gains, as it has strong support around $ 1654. Looking for attest and break of $ 1666-68 for a possible test of $ 1673-75 zones

Euro @= 1.3128= Euro is likely to make gains in early hours of Europe. It should hold 1.3105-10 for move towards 1.3170-75. Break would encourage for a test of 1.3195-00 zones.

GBP @ = 1.5922 = Prefer buy on dips around 1.59’s with Stop loss on break of 1.5870. Only break of 1.5955 could push Cable towards 1.5980.


BuY GbP oN dipS – PrefeR SellinG GoLD – ApR 11

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Comment by Vinod Perkash on April 12, 2012 at 3:30am

good morning sir.. wht abt aud!!

Comment by asad rizvi on April 12, 2012 at 3:54am

Vinod, AUD @1.0370 = The surge due to good job number, but we should not forget that Australian currency is too dependent on China’s economy and tomorrows GDP number could provide better picture in the sense that job number was based on previous performance and the worrying factor is future performance of Australian economy. So I would not hesitate to sell AUD around 1.0380-90 for 1.0330. watch 1.0425...GL

Comment by asad rizvi on April 12, 2012 at 4:31am

Jason, GOLD @ $ 1657 = just noted a minor error that instead of support at $ 1654 its the prefered buying level with STOPS $ 1648. Yes we could see spike today. But request to all my readers that discipline is the key. The market could become choppy due to various factors...GL

Comment by kiko on April 12, 2012 at 4:44am

will follow you sir

Comment by spring on April 12, 2012 at 6:12am

I sell AUD @ 1.0389

Comment by asad rizvi on April 12, 2012 at 6:14am

Spring, Aud @ 1.0389 = Watch this move and sell around 1.0410

Comment by spring on April 12, 2012 at 6:22am


4H time frame ,200 EMA around @ 1.0440.


Thank you,sir


Comment by spring on April 12, 2012 at 6:24am

I am long term bullish Yuan .

But  I believe there is scope for some further CNY weakness before strength.

Comment by asad rizvi on April 12, 2012 at 6:41am

Comment by asad rizvi on April 12, 2012 at 6:42am

Opps Jason, I was quick to indicate @ 1.0389, it came down to 1.0382, I know someone went long there...GL


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