Just to give another perspective for those who want to go long USD/JPY at this level.
USD/JPY has reached my weekly target to go short.
95.50 is where the bearish harmonic pattern in the weekly timeframe complete with nearly perfect symmetrical time period (52 week from Mar12high and 26 week from Sep12 low). This price target is where the following fibs numbers of weekly swing converge:
1) 2.618 extension of BC (Mar12 high to Sep12 low)
2) 2.00 extension of XA (Apr11 high to Oct11 low)
3) 95 is also the 3-year record high in May2010
Expect to see some significant correction in the weeks ahead if USD/JPY can't manage to close above 95 this week.
Nevertheless, going against this trend is extremely high risk trade especially with the non-farm payroll ahead.
Weekly chart
4-hour chart
AB=CD pattern at 361.8 BC extension
Comment by Salman Dhedhi on March 8, 2013 at 11:45am truely risky trade in both side short and long
Comment by Peter jcp on March 8, 2013 at 12:14pm Hi Athit - the UJ is not one of my normal yen crosses to intraday trade - as too slow. Checking it out I notice price as gone up to 95.79 and is still in its short term up channel. The first price I can now sell from is 95.58- and then I can only hold if price drops under 95.37.
Whilst we stay above 95. 63 - it still trying higher - but as you say with it being NFP day - anything might happen over next 2- 5 hrs .
Good Luck and will keep an eye on later
Regards
Peter
Comment by pandora on March 8, 2013 at 4:09pm hmm prize is now 96.18 ,,what happen ?
Comment by Athit Rungcharoenkitkul on March 8, 2013 at 9:42pm Bad call..it way overshoot the target.
Let's see when this weekly bar complete.
Confirmed failure if the weekly bar closed above 96. Then wait for correction in 4-hour timeframe at around 95.20-95.35 (33-38.2% correction) to exit the trade. Price cannot continue to rise forever.
Weekly chart
4-hour chart
Comment by majimaji on March 9, 2013 at 8:02am I think in this situation its less about technicals and more about what BOJ is actually doing
Comment by Igor Titara on March 9, 2013 at 7:49pm Hello Athit, i agree with your charts. Athit, what the name of this template? very useful to read.
Comment by Athit Rungcharoenkitkul on March 10, 2013 at 12:02am Hi Igor, simple tools.. MA ribbon, ATR channel, display price, and bartime on the main chart, MACD and Stochastic MA in the middle, then RSI and RSIMA at the bottom.
Comment by Igor Titara on March 10, 2013 at 1:20am thx mate.
Comment
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