Trade of the Week | 12 - 16 November 2012

A sharp Japanese yen decline overshadowed moves by other major currencies during the recent trading week.

The 79.25 area has defined notable turning points in price action on the USD/JPY currency pair over the past several weeks. To wit: the September high (denoted by [1] on the chart below) and the 30 October low (denoted by [2]). A prospective uptrend support line defined by late September and early October lows was positioned above the 79 level at the open of the Tuesday 13 November Asian trading session.

Currency traders seeking to long the dollar yen at or near 79.25 were given ample time to establish the position, as the pair essentially straddled the recently influential price level during the first two hours of Tuesday's London session.

Near the end of Wednesday's Asian session, Japan's LDP leader Shinzo Abe expressed his desire for bolder monetary easing policies by the Bank of Japan [I summarized Abe's comments in this video], triggering a strong yen sell-off. The yen extended its decline against the major currencies as Abe reiterated his stance during Thursday's Asian session.

Traders who chose to close their dollar yen long position at the monthly M4 pivot point pocketed a profit of some 200 pips. Japan's currency saw its largest weekly drop against the US dollar since June, finishing the week down 2.2 percent versus the greenback.

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Curt Wehrley
Twitter: @fxcoachcurt
FX Strategist & Trader Coach
Licenses: Series 3, 34
FX Bootcamp

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