TD Securities - "Since the market’s slide back under what we had considered to be the pivotal level for the bullish technical view on funds we held before the holiday break—namely the 0.9885 zone—spot has been unable to get back above that point. Five rejections in the high 0.98s this week and the modestly bearish-leaning (for the USD) trend momentum signals on the 1– and 6-hour charts suggest that the high 0.98 area remains strong resistance and that the short term bias remains lower. A break of 0.9845 (multiple top neckline) implies a test of 0.9805. (...)
USD/CAD is creeping along the base of trend support in the mid 0.98s but we are frankly less confident that the USD can pick up much of a bid in the near-term. We have dialed back our bullishness from mid/late December as the rally from the channel (bull flag) break out failed to take hold. The broader bounce in USD/CAD from early/mid December remains intact and is therefore still a positive influence on our longer-term thinking but the turn lower in spot over the past two weeks and pressure on the low/mid 0.98s is a concern—especially as short-term price signals (above) suggest that 0.9825 (key support) is under threat. Loss of support here will suggest more near-term slippage towards 0.9750 we think."