TD Securities - "At the start of the session today, we had thought that the intraday peak was in this market and that the bias for USD/CAD over the balance of the day was lower. A small consolidation, bear flag, was forming and the market had failed against hourly trend resistance off the early weak highs. But USD has fared a little better and the rebound in the market so far today might just save funds from a deeper sell off to fill the 0.9955/65 gap for the moment. The short-term bear target of 1.0020 has been reached so a modest bounce back to the 1.0060/70 zone looks the more likely near-term course for funds from here.
More broadly, short-term downside risks have not abated. The pattern of trade on the daily chart over the past few days has formed a bearish “evening star” top/reversal and losses so far have barely retraced any of the USD’s rally from the low 0.98 area. Despite these negative developments, we rather think that scope for USD weakness is limited (mid/upper 0.99s). Trend momentum studies remain USD-constructive and long-term price signals are bullish as we move into month-end. Short-term weakness should give way to longer-term USD gains."