TD Securities - "EURUSD Base Case
Rate Decision: 97%: We expect rates unchanged. The ECB will likely keep its easing bias, but there is no expectation of a rate cut.
EUR/USD should be fairly unresponsive remaining around preceding levels.
Opening Statement: 70%: Draghi delivers a similar statement to August, reiterating forward guidance as is. GDP forecasts for 2013/14 upgraded by around 0.1% while inflation forecasts left unchanged.
EUR/USD may drift higher but any initial move may be contained by the 50-day ma at 1.3199.
Q&A: 65%: Balanced, fairly unchanged Q&A, disappointing expectations that Draghi “must be dovish.” He acknowledges that some data has improved but remains cautious about the outlook.
EUR/USD likely to challenge and potentially break through 1.3220 with any move higher capped at 1.3290."