TD Securities - Only a move back above 1.2806 takes the EURUSD to firmer technical ground

TD Securities - "We cannot argue that the EUR is consolidating the July/September rally any more. In fact, this week’s break through support in the low 1.28 area (200-day MA and the September/October range base) argues more strongly and obviously for lower EUR levels. The break out from the sideways range trade (a double top) targets a drop to the upper 1.24 area. A second weekly close below the 40-day MA supports the negative outlook now. And yet the bullish 40/200-day MA crossover persists, albeit in a weakened state now, and while the risk of a false signal looks stronger this week, this is still a signal that has had a solid track record in calling or confirming trend changes over the past few years. Early week gains next week should be contained to the 1.2780 area. Only a move back above 1.2806 takes the EUR to firmer technical ground. (...) Failure to sustain medium-term gains through 1.30/1.31 looks the most costly development for the EUR bull case on the weekly charts. The 1.3096 trend line remains a potential bull trigger (neckline of a potential weekly inverse Head & Shoulders) but we are a long way from there at the moment. Weekly support in the low 1.26 area would give the H&S formation a bit of symmetry and bolster its credentials but we are not holding our breath."

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Tags: EUR/USD, EURUSD, TD Securities


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