TD Securities - "Thin conditions through the month, quarter and half year-end have helped produce a pop higher in EURUSD in today’s session to test a band of resistance in the upper 1.36 area—1.39 double top breakdown point (April low), early June high, top of the June channel, 40 & 200-day MAs and 38.2% retracement resistance from the 1.39/1.35 drop. Trend momentum studies do not show a lot of directional intent on the daily and weekly charts at the moment. That suggests it may be difficult for the EUR to hold on the these gains. We rather favour fading gains through the upper 1.36 area but we have to concede that a sustained rise through the raft of resistance point outlined above (1.3650/00) would suggest more—and more sustained—strength in the EUR moving forward.
With the week starting off with EURUSD pushing through the top of the June consolidation on the weekly chart at 1.3647, it is a bit harder to argue that the EUR is still consolidating. Price action may well be affected by thin conditions but and the risk of more volatility through the remainder of the holiday-shortened week suggests that it would be wrong to dismiss the risk of a return to the 1.3750/1.38 area if the EUR can maintain its current gains through the close of the week. We spot key medium-term support in the 1.3510/20 area now. Weakness below here should see EUR losses pick up more materially."