TD Securities - "EURUSD hesitated only briefly early this week, respecting the “shooting star” top noted last week for a day or two, before pushing on to new cycle highs Thursday. The drop back in spot from the high 1.39 area Thursday—close to the top of the daily channel—alerts us to the risk of a deeper turn lower in the week ahead, however. We are a little uncomfortable with the EUR’s extended run higher but the technical underpinnings remain strong, with bullish trend momentum signals evident across a range of short, medium and long-term time frames. Losses should be shallow and short-lived from here based on that observation alone. Technically, however, loss of support at 1.3820/30 would point to a deeper pullback potentially.
EURUSD gas sustained gains through multi-year trend resistance for a second week and, as noted above, trend momentum remains bullish. But weekly price action does suggest some uncertainty creeping into the market at these levels (narrow ‘real body” on the weekly candle). There is little obviously negative in the weekly signal at this point. However, a net loss on the week next week (especially losses back under 1.3820—note the convergence with the daily chart) would signal a possible top/reversal."