TD Securities - "EUR/USD weakness extended to a little below the 100/200-day moving averages this week (clustered around the 1.3145 area) but the market has recovered back through these benchmarks so far today after finding support right on the 50% retracement of the July/August rally at 1.3104. We don’t think the move down is complete but there is scope for a short- term correction if the market can get any sort of traction above 1.32 early next week. Given the well-defined trading range apparent over the past few months, we still rather think the EUR topped out around 1.34 in August and will head back towards 1.27/1.28 in the next few weeks. Modest EUR/USD rallies are a sell. Weak and contradictory trend momentum indicators over a range of timeframes suggest that the trading environment will remain choppy and broadly directionless (between 1.27/1.34) for the foreseeable future.
The bearish weekly reversal signal last week remains in force. Trend momentum studies are weak and directionless so losses are liable to remain choppy rather than trending or grinding. Modest EUR rebounds offer a chance to get short against strong resistance in the 1.34 area now. Only gains through 1.3415 can undermine the bear outlook at the moment."