TD Securities - "EUR/CAD retains a heavy undertone and the underlying trend lower looks quite resolute in the short-term. But the market has found support in the low 1.38 area—the June high—just above key trend support (1.3803 today). Heavy net selling last week and further losses so far this week leave the 1.38 support zone at some risk still, we think. But the market seems reluctant to push significantly lower after 8 (so far) consecutive days of net losses (not excessive but the one-way trade is looking somewhat extended perhaps). The EUR may stabilize over the next 1-3 days by way of a consolidation. We may settle into a range around 1.38 from here for a while.
AUD/CAD gains through the low/mid 0.95 area (testing short-term pull-back resistance at 0.9621 now) now confer a little more strength into the near-term outlook. The cross has been consolidating long-term losses over the past month after breaking back through major bear trend resistance. We think a sustained push through 0.9535/45 allows the cross to recover more ground towards the upper 0.97s near-term (0.9769 as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement derived from the 1.07/0.92 drop).
No real change in the GBP/CAD situation today as the cross continues to chop around the recent highs in rather indecisive fashion. Again, the chart suggests better selling interest on short-term strength above 1.64 via the long, upper shadows on the daily candles. We remain neutral here as we are still to be convinced that the GBP has the legs for a sustained push higher at this point. Monitor."