“Being Pre-occupied with not losing interferes with winning. Trading not to lose is not a good strategy. You need to trade to win.” Ari Kiev Trading author & coach.

This morning I am taking a loss in NZDUSD. Not only did the central bank raise rates as expected but the commentary was quite bullish, and while I think it is all a bit strange considering the environment in their major trading partners, my only business is with the price which is moving against my short position. Therefore I will stand aside. Looking back, with the clarity that comes from exiting a losing position I can see that I entered a position essentially in a sideways market without using RSI or some other oscillator to help me pick my spot, convinced of the fundamental weakness of commodity fx and the cyclicality that meant that this would sooner or later apply to Kiwi.  While I might ultimately be proved correct, I can no longer participate in this trade. We learn more from out losers than our winners!

Having broken multi-year resistance EURUSD is beginning to make some progress to the upside now. I don’t have a recommendation here because as I said before, I see a disparity between the fundamentals and the technicals, and in my view the best trades are when the fundamentals and the technical picture line up and give me confidence in the trade.  Daily RSI comes in at 69 now.  The next target on the high side is the Oct 2011 level  at 1.4174. A break and close below 1.38 would cast doubt on the recent breakout.

I need not have had any worries about USDJPY getting away from me and it sits this morning at 102.60 comfortably below 103.50 that would have gotten me long before a pull in to the 200 day SMA at 100.00 I still find it odd that while EURCHF has 1.21 in its sights again, USDJPY has not been able to get lower too being risk correlated too. However I’ve learned today that my business is with the moving price and technical set up versus the fundamental picture and not exclusively with one or the other. - See more at: http://www.fxlight.co/daily-fx-forecast-2

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Comment by Pip Logic on March 13, 2014 at 10:14pm

Do you think the market can see your 200 & 100 SMA?

Comment by Gary on March 13, 2014 at 10:23pm
I think there's a good chance of it especially considering the overdue pull back in the S&P. If we get a decent risk off trade in the coming session's then yes. If we don't get it or some other factor puts us closing above 103.50 then I'll likely enter long at that point. Hope that helps. I'll keep following the price action in my daily webinars if you want to keep an eye out.
Comment by Pip Logic on March 13, 2014 at 10:34pm

Do you actually trade?

Comment by Pip Logic on March 13, 2014 at 10:38pm

risk on risk off is a joke, a cliche, I never see anyone saying how to trade it

Comment by Gary on March 13, 2014 at 10:44pm
Ah. Now I've re-read your fist comment...it's been a long day. Yea I trade. Blogging not so much. I took your comment at face value rather than the sarcasm you intended.

Look it's either going to go to the 200 Day SMA or not. The 200 Day SMA held twice in Oct and once in November. If it doesn't go then I'll deal with that at the time.

Sorry not to understand the traders secret hanshake or whatever.

Comment by Gary on March 13, 2014 at 10:49pm
I hope you are in a better mood tomorrow. Thanks for the comment all the same.
Comment by Pip Logic on March 13, 2014 at 10:56pm

maybe you could provide a screen shot of this Oct and November 200 SMA hold

Comment by Gary on March 13, 2014 at 11:01pm
Maybe tomorrow it's late in this part of the world and I'm responding on my phone. It's the 200 period Simple Moving Average on a daily timeframe. I might have run through it on this mornings webinar. Can't remember to be honest but it's at www.fxlight.co
Comment by Gary on March 13, 2014 at 11:05pm
If it's not I'll make a point of it in tomorrow's webinar :-)


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