Bear Flag and 9900 still marks the initial lvl on USD to surpass to negate the bear flag out..
This is on 4 hrs.. 8 hrs provides confirmation of this break at around 9917..........
With news event coming and expecting whipsaw, we could see some erratic moves and a possible fakes up and down..
Once above 9918 USD is surely to show strength going forward.......
9900 test surely to show sun 29 on euro...
GL....
Spotting Rejection in Adv::
I like to share in on how to possibly spot a rejection in advance.. Like any good structure to materialize it has some fine points that needs to be satisfied.. Below starting off with the USD 4 hrs and how we broke initially under the bear flag but failed at the confirmation spot.. Got us 2X4 hrs double bottom candles which starts to hint on the possible rejection and the confirmation was to close higher back to the supp turned resis or in this back into the bear flag.. It did and moved higher fast and furiously simply cuz was the rejection.. I have spotted such incidents earlier as well, but don't have the stats to determine the ratio of success.. A ratio would determine on such spotting and rejections to be in the price need to rather travel faster on the opposite directions and must complete atleast 90% move to the band it has gotten into.. Now we have same spotting on the euro 4 hrs.. We have reversal candles forming double bases so far including one been a dogi.. We played the supp turned resis and the rise up has been off the daily and 8 hrs 2802 supp so qualifies in as a bounce that could possibly take the reiss out and euro back into the channel it was traveling.. It has been within a down trend and we are under to the median.. But this median has been a strong listed supp on other time frames as in Daily been a breakout.. Failure to head higher have a risk to 2788-2800 but as per this 4 hrs we can hit 2740... Eyes open, bias thrown out the door, and when Fed's comes on I know what I have to do, hit longs off earlier mentioned spots and hit em lightly.. very lightly....... if goes accordingly would know where to add in and more precisely when to add in.. As for spotting once again, something I have been noticing and sharing it in.. I would like to see someone else coming and sharing something alike and esp if someone has already mastered it would appreciate guidance here.. I'm a die hard trader who likes to trade on patterns with eyes wide open......... GL...
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Comment by Peter jcp on October 2, 2012 at 8:59am -
Hi Tahir - I always like having a look at your charts and know as you have mentioned that you are a "die hard trader - who trades on patterns with eyes wide open....." From what I would gather I should imagine you are very successful as well as I have seen you have had some great trades using your well tested strategy.
With regards to wanting to hear from others and sharing etc - I am quite happy to mention a few of my observations that may assist - as they do help me. I know you place a lot of your guidance from linear trend lines and patterns on different time frame along with key levels of S & R. I think that in itself is enough to have success - but you can certainly add to it and that may be shown by what happened on the EU from early Monday am on October 1st.
The 2802 - 10 area was an important support zone that did hold and started the bounce up. I had that on my charts as a horizontal line / barrier area. In my case I am then assisted by Oscillators that unfortunately many traders discard believing that they are not that good. I find them very helpful - but they are more bespoke and not standard chart package settings.
I then add a few linear regressions indicators ( prefer them to any MA's) and I can end up with a more dynamic view than you get from a normal static chart - whatever the time frame.
My charts can be very fussy and messy and so I also use several charts - one which is also naked - so that I don't altogether lose sight of a simple view. Because I am more of a precision short term trader depending on time constraints and quick moves under 25 pips with very small stops - I end up using my tick charts for my scalps.In some cases they can then be left on and added to - to take advantage of the longer 30 -70 pips moves that may occur within a one hour period.
In conclusion - trendlines and patterns are great tools - combine with S & R and then- dynamic aids ( oscillators / BB's / Lr's ) and the picture becomes clearer - well certainly for me ;-)))
Have a great October
Regards
Peter
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Comment by Tahir Khan on October 2, 2012 at 7:58pm -
Thanks Peter.. There was a time I was using different tools along to the TL play, but I believe I was not good on picking things up for decision used to get blurred out..
I'm thinking of adding flavor to get some better confirmation on things as in they may assist my TL play.. I will go back and try to pick what you have mentioned and test it out to the TL play..
2800 was a sweet lvl to hit longs indeed.......
Here is what I see on USD ............
USD 4 and 8 hrs ::
Comment
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