Societe Generale - "The bursting of the safe-haven bubble: who is next? Safe-haven currencies have collapsed one after the other since the ECB won its battle and left the euro shining. However, the bursting of the safe-haven bubble has not yet spread as far as the NOK, the SEK or the NZD. The residual NOK strength has been supported by portfolio investment inflows. It is also consistent with the moderate drop in the EUR/NOK cross-currency basis swap, compared with other ‘safe havens’. However, the economy is overheating while suffering from a loss of competitiveness. The Norges Bank thus faces a dilemma and is unlikely to hike before the normalisation of the currency overvaluation. After the JPY and the CHF, the NOK may be the next one to capitulate. We recommend a 3M EUR/NOK call spread 1x2 strikes 7.45/7.65."