These survey's findings are quite shocking to me... I know that the probability of crash is still high, but I was not expecting that it was so high!

Francesc

Societé Generale - "Survey of crash expectations. The probability of a crash is 33% in the next 3 months and 43% in the next 6 months according to a survey with 106 respondents. This is much higher than what is priced into the option market over 3 months, while the equity market is far more fairly priced over 6 month, suggesting an arbitrage between expensive EQ tails and cheaper FX ones over that horizon. Underpriced risks are the mix of growth and fiscal sustainability, with specific issues in Europe, the US and to a lesser extent China."