Societe Generale - "FX positioning data from the IMM show a little risk fatigue at the end of January, as dollars were bought, CAD and to a lesser extent AUD sold. The speculative community is long the higher-yielding currencies - AUD, MXN, NZD in particular - and it is still building a short yen position. I am struck that the yen short is still not unusually big, while a net Euro long is still small. Finally, I am surprised there is a net long of GBP still. Overall, these figures would all tend to suggest 1) EUR/JPY remains a buy, at least on dips; and 2) GBP is vulnerable this week.
There are a lot of central bank policy meetings this week. None of them are likely to see policy changes! (...) The ECB meeting would be an opportunity for Mario Draghi to calm the market reaction to his comments last time around, when he sounded ‘un-dovish' and promised a rise in both Euro and rates. A EUR correction ahead of the meeting is possible, providing a chance to go long."