Societe Generale - "In the week ending Jan 15, the speculative community bought dollars and yen, sold Euros, according to CFTC data. The way EUR/USD has traded does suggest that positioning is gyrating pointlessly, with outright exposure fluctuating around zero. Economic weakness and a less dovish tone from the ECB, accompanied by a correction at the front end of the European bond markets, rather balance each other out, though we still expect the Euro to be stronger near term, and weaker long term. The ECB's policy stance may not be ‘hawkish' but it is a lot less dovish than that of other major central banks and even if that sits uncomfortably with currency weakness, the Euro will benefit for now.
So... be long EUR vs GBP. NZD and JPY. Be short back-end eurodollar and short stg futures."