Societe Generale - "The ADP employment survey, which posted an increase of 192,000, points to an increase of around 200k in payrolls, in line with the SG forecast. That would mark a clear pickup, since the 3, 6 and 12-month average payroll increases are all clustered in a 150-160k range. We also look for a dip in the unemployment rate and a flat monthly earnings figure, taking wage growth to 1.9%. Economic pick-up without inflationary pressures. The key for all markets is when a faster pace of employment creation and a continued decline in unemployment has an impact on Fed policy expectations. H2 2013 is my guess, but for now the recipe for markets remains intact - the good US data are better for the Euro than the dollar and probably better for CAD than USD, too."

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Tags: ADP, NFP, Non Farm Payrolls, Non-Farm Payrolls, Societe Generale, Unemployment


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