Societé Generale - "In the last three years, the weakest G20 currencies have been the Turkish Lira, the India rupee, the Argentine peso, the Rand, the Real and the Zloty – not the Euro, Yen or US dollar at all. GDP has failed to recover in Japan, the UK and the Euro Zone. All three have currencies which will fall, and the yen is still going to lead the way thanks to a Government that will not change tack.
Size matters for JPY and GBP. As external imbalances correct from Japan to the UK, the size of the adjustment in portfolio positions is pressuring GBP and JPY crosses, with EUR/JPY putting pressure on EUR/USD. As GBP corrects lower it will pressure EUR and USD higher as alternative investment destinations.
(...) Positioning. Long USD, EUR, short GBP CHF, JPY, AUD. The JPY downtrend will resume in earnest after a pause; GBP and the CHF are a sell against EUR, NOK or SEK now, against USD for the long term. AUD suffers from valuation fatigue and is vulnerable."