So, what now?

It looks like being more of the same.

President Obama will continue with his populist middle class policies supported by a Democrat doctrine of greater social welfare and benefit that would have been seen had Romney been elected.

Mr Bernanke (if he chooses to remain as Fed. Governor) will continue with easing policies and it is most likely that there will be a compromise to avert the fiscal cliff.

It will continue to be in Europe where the drama will unfold.

The Greek Parliament votes today on a new series of austerity measures against a background of social unrest and strikes.

The vote may fall in favour of the Government (just) but the continued defections from the ruling coalition bring the threat of further elections closer.

Economic data across the Eurozone is becoming more uniformly poor. Germany will have another set of weak industrial production figures today, following on from last months’ fall. Euro stat said that Italian GDP will contract 2.3% in 2012 with a further fall of 0.5% in 2013. The figure for 2013 looks a little generous to me. We have already seen horrendous growth projections for growth (?) for Greece and Spain, so what will be the plan? More austerity and a Eurozone that has an even more noticeable north/south divide than is already being seen.

With economies in the more prosperous north beginning to slow markedly and their population becoming more agitated, it is surely only a matter of time before a break-up is being openly discussed.


Conspiracy theorists among us (I am one) will surely believe that plans are being put in place even now for the departure of one or more States from the Eurozone.

Yes, there will be huge costs. Yes there will be upheaval on a scale not witnessed in the past sixty years but there will be progress and a belief that things can get better.

As it stands the policies of “wait and see” and “let’s give them more time” are simply prolonging the agony.

Meanwhile across the Atlantic Mr Obama gets a further four years.

Continuity? We may not like it but it is what is needed there right now.  Policies that we may not agree with are being enacted and acted upon.

“Wait and see” and “let’s give them more time” are not policies they are dereliction of duty. How can the political concept of a single currency be more important that the fate of a generation of the whole of Europe.? There are Spaniards who will NEVER work in their lives! How can that be right.

Growth is the ONLY answer to the issues of the Eurozone. Whatever the cost if will be financial and not gauged in human terms! The politicians owe it to their people to improve the quality of their lives not jump through hoops at the behest of a bureaucrat in Brussels who treats them as some kind of grand experiment.

Oh and the Euro? Parity before 1.50!

Views: 160

Comment by Alan Hill From Sarrafx Trading on November 7, 2012 at 11:35am

We will see one of those levels in 2013! I am coming with a prediction competition too! Slightly shorter term but I will expect your participation!

It is very sunny here and still able to swim! Winter coming though.

I agree on those two reason for the Obama victory but would add a third......women love him!

Comment by Alan Hill From Sarrafx Trading on November 7, 2012 at 1:03pm
Thanks Keith
Comment by Romano on November 7, 2012 at 1:47pm

So u actually believe we see 1.5 one day, not like complete devaluation right into collaps :))

Anyway, u are correct on fundamentals and I dont think its any kind of conspiracy but simply natural rationalization to have plan B for some countries exit, those retards should have had it already decade ago in the first place.

For me, I dont care about direction but I want finally either well defined price action and bigger volatility or more stable trends, these 50pip daily ranges on average are gaY!

Comment by Alan Hill From Sarrafx Trading on November 7, 2012 at 3:12pm

No Romano, I see parity!


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