So, that was 2012!
What did we learn? Well, as far as I am concerned, I learned that gravity doesn’t exist! What is holding the Euro up? I have now idea.
It seems that with Greece having secured a further bailout, all in the garden is rosy. The Euro is trading up above 1.30 (as I write) and making multi month highs against an ailing JPY. There is something of a paradox here. Of the two major safe haven currencies, the JPY is weaker as their economy struggles and further QE is expected while the other the USD is weaker as their economy is starting to improve (if the revised GDP data is to be believed.)
So, that was 2012! What of 2013?
Well one thing is certain the issue of the Fiscal Cliff will be resolved, like the stars of an old romantic movie, the Democrats and Republicans are acting coy but will get together before the final reel!
Europe will continue to kick the can down the street and muddle along without taking decisive action. I saw this morning that Mr Draghi says that the population of the EU can trust him and the ECB. Trust them to do what is the question!
I am still a believer in my tenet that the Euro is not best solution for what ails the Southern countries and help from the North cannot be expected to last forever. Indeed a Bloomberg Survey just released shows that most economists believe that the continuation of the debt crisis will drag Germany back into recession. Without their help as the major contributor to the various bailout funds what will happen?
That is definitely a question for the New Year.
A topic I have mentioned before but feel no shame in mentioning again is that the action taken by the U.S. at the start of the financial crisis (is it coming up to five years ago?) was not maybe a perfect solution but it was decisive and gave America something to build upon. The EU is still bumbling around in the dark and hoping that doing pretty much nothing is a solution in itself.
I have three wishes for 2013, they won’t come to pass in this year but I would like to see some progress; First the collapse of the Euro (naturally). Guys, it’s not working, please wake up.
Second, some progress in the U.K. to leave the EU. They don’t belong and never will. The populace don’t like it. Brits view sovereignty totally differently to mainland Europeans and will cling to every last vestige before they hand anything to Brussels (or Frankfurt/Berlin).
Finally, can we have our market back? Trading that works technically due to fundamental reasons. That is to say, let’s say goodbye to risk on/risk off and welcome back to currencies and commodities that move due to supply and demand created by economic fundamentals.
I have a trade Idea!
Sell Eur with a TP at parity! I am not sure when it will happen but I know it will.