Despite better than expected US retail sales data 0.8 pct versus 0.6 pct that indicated people are spending, Euro after briefly hitting new lows of the year 1.2995 in Europe, bounced back in New York session for couple of factors.

The slowdown in the Empire State business in New York area suggesting slow pace of growth in manufacturing sector and in anticipation that Spain’s bond yield weakening could lead to more and early bailout package for Euro-Mediterranean country.  Another factor that could have helped Euro was rumor that a US investment bank was buying the currency to repatriate funds.

Well, it may be all over as Euro’s current strength should fizzle out because fundamentally once European problem pops out, it is never over in a short span of time. Spain still has a long way to go. ECB has reported that it has already sucked in large part of money in March. It has a tough task ahead as huge measure is required to maintain fiscal discipline.    

Meanwhile, RBA has once again created doubt in the minds of investors by saying that it is prudent to wait for more data before adjusting policy. This is more sensible Central Bank approach because decision should be pro-active measure and should always taken in anticipation of future trend and not based on what happened in past.

But market always reacts on past happening and hence is always short lived.  So until next month’s policy announcement AUD will now frequently come under selling pressure and weak data will exert pressure on the Australian currency. Keeping the global trend and Australian interest rate, I think weakening of inflationary pressure will strength the case of rate cut. AUD should top around 1.0350-55 and hold below 1.0385, a break of 1.0305 would see AUD hitting 1.0288



Gold @ $ 1650 = Strategy unchanged will sell Gold as long as it hold below $ 1658. Prefer selling around $ 1652-53. Pick you profit regularly to avail frequent selling opportunity support is at $ 1642, convincing break encourages for $ 1636

Euro @= 1.3115= Tough I suspect that we have seen the top and only break of 1.3128 will encourage for another test of 1.3145-50 zones. I will not hesitate to sell Euro as long as 1.3190 is protected. A break of 1.3065 should push Euro down to res-test 1.3010 or probably 1.2955

GBP @ = 1.5887= Cable could make another 20-25 pip surge, but they are preferred selling levels, as 1.5950 should hold. Looking for a dip to teat 1.5830-35 break ehre would push Cable down to 1.5780   


UsD uP - GoLD DowN ApR 16-20

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Comment by asad rizvi on April 17, 2012 at 3:30am

Jaosn, JPY @ 80.47 = I think we have seen the top. If you go through my last 6 week’s Yen weekly post you will find that I did call top around 84. Japan has injected liquidity money and not sure if in future how much more it can inject. But there are other factors that could dive the market. Euro is in hot waters, US bond market recovered, but US data will provide more direction about US economy and “Operation Twist” I 2-months away. So my medium-term Yen target is 76 per USD and should hold 82.80

For today unless breaks 80.10, we could see a small bounce back to 80.80-90. Break of resistance level will see 79’s and 79.40 will be crucial level to watch…GL

Comment by kiko on April 17, 2012 at 4:24am

good luck

Comment by muhammad farooq qurban on April 17, 2012 at 5:08am

sir any idea for eur/usd  ?

Comment by asad rizvi on April 17, 2012 at 5:10am

Farooq = What more are you looking for ?..View unchanged

Comment by Husain Abbas Doriwala on April 17, 2012 at 5:19am

Morning Mr. Rizvi, wud it be appropriate to buy Usd/Chf @ 0.9150/60 with TP 0.921 and 0.924? TIA

Comment by asad rizvi on April 17, 2012 at 5:27am

Husain, Swiss currency will find support around 0.9195-00. Test of 0.9240 could only be poosible if Euro breaks 1.3.However, kee a close watch on 0.9135-40....Cheers

Comment by muhammad farooq qurban on April 17, 2012 at 5:38am

good morning  sir asad .....

Comment by spring on April 17, 2012 at 5:59am

I sold  EURO @ 1.3138 yesterday.

Now I am watching for a chance to sell GOLD above 1655----60.


Comment by asad rizvi on April 17, 2012 at 6:03am

Spring, Euro good, but Gold $ 1655-60. I will pray for you ;-)

Comment by spring on April 17, 2012 at 6:18am

Thanks sir

I am  watching the momentum indicator.Let's just play it by ear."

"Prefer selling around $ 1652-53. "------I do  respect  your opinions.

Thank you very very much ,sir  !


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