Royal Bank of Scotland - "Japan is on holidays today, but I like the way USD/JPY has traded technically and it is time to rebuild a long position, with a stop below the recent lows (97).
USD/JPY rallied essentially with the fall in EUR/USD after the ECB policy announcements. As this was about EUR, arguably it should have had little impact on weakening the JPY. If there was excessive long USD/JPY positioning or a lack of demand, the ECB easing and a weaker EUR could have triggered a weaker USD/JPY.
USD/JPY has consolidated for a few sessions holding above 97, and now may be preparing to turn back up to test highs near 100. The USD/JPY still retains a rising trend since September last year, and the risk is that it breaks 100 on the next test.
The near term may be determined by the US payrolls tonight. However, the risk feels asymmetric in favour of a higher USD/JPY. If it is just as expected, or perhaps even a bit below expected, the technical pattern appears to favour higher. If above expected, it may move quickly and even break 100."