Royal Bank of Scotland - "We see downside risks to GBP/USD. To a large extent this is based on our negative view on future developments in the Euro area that are seen weighing more broadly on European currencies against the USD. Deteriorating long-term UK fundamentals is also seen adding further grist to the mill. At the same time we see a more constructive outlook for the USD given the relatively better cyclical position of the US economy. While in the past this may have led to a deteriorating current account position, beneficial energy themes are expected to see an improving Basis Balance position (Current Account plus FDI). In all, we expect GBP/USD to finish the year in the low 1.50s."