Royal Bank of Scotland - "GBP/USD - The short term chart (...) is yet another sign that GBP/USD looks heavy and the breaking of the trend line last week leaves the support level at 1.5829 particularly exposed.
Very little to add to last week’s comments; I continue to think that this currency pair will trade very heavy for the majority of this quarter and my ‘wrong’ level is a weekly close above the pivotal 1.6300 level.
For this quarter my downside targets are at 1.5829 (Nov ’12 low), 1.56 (Mar ’12 low) and 1.53 (multi year support since Sep ’10). Be aware that a breaking of the support level at 1.5829 could trigger a double top level at 1.6300 with a downside target of 1.5350
Should I be wrong and the market trade above the 1.6300 level then look to 1.6816 for the next meaningful resistance level."