Royal Bank of Scotland - "My base case it that the Fed kicks off with a 10bn taper, 5 each for Tsy and MBS; this firms up the full taper projection. Our economists are calling for a 20bn taper. But our Treasury trader pointed out that this is per quarter. It makes sense that the Fed begins to use its quarterly full forecast/press conference meetings to announce QE taper steps, rather than adjusting every meeting. This gives them decent increments to assess the economic growth outlook between taper steps.
As such, there is a high risk that the taper number in the FOMC statement, the first to hit the screens, will be $20bn, in which case expect a significant USD bounce.
Anything less that 10 bn, in my view is USD negative, especially with Yellen in the frame. This will raise doubts that the Fed is prepared to taper all the way. I see this as unlikely."