Royal Bank of Scotland - "We recommend establishing short NZD/USD exposure at 0.8305, targeting 0.7800, just above rising trend line support, with a stop on a close above the recent highs at 0.8480.
With the NZD having recently tested 5-year highs on a trade-weighted basis, we expect the RBNZ to show increased concern about the strength of the currency in either today's monetary policy meeting, Governor Wheeler's Thursday speech, or both. Long positioning in NZD appears near extremes, leaving room on the downside for a squeeze. Friday's US labour report could be better than expected and benchmark revisions may improve the labour market historically, providing support for the USD."