RangE TradinG UntiL NYK – GoLD BiaS DownSidE - Mar 29

The US Dollar gained as Euro once again failed to get close to 1.34 levels despite stable market condition in Europe and some positive news to increase firewall funds. USD did not react to low durable goods number, as February’s 2.2 pct growth was against market expectation and pushing Euro below the important support level of 1.3280.    

Sterling became 1st casualty as it was looking for reason to dip after failing to break 1.60 physiological levels and soon after the announcement by the UK office of National Statistics of revision of UK’s 4th quarter GDP to contract to 0.3 pct against its earlier estimate of 0.2 pct.

Later Gold also got clobbered with the developing news as oil took the lead after reports that Sarkozy is trying to convince UK & USA to release oil from its reserves to ease price pressure. Softer oil eases inflationary pressure one of cause that helps gold.

Gold is also under pressure due to prolonged strike since last 12-days in India as bullion and jewelry traders are demanding to withdraw hike in gold import duty. Indian gold and silver buying per month averaged USD 5.45 billion. Slowdown of Chinese economy is also discouraging gold prices, as China and India are the top two gold buying nations.

I think market will trade in narrow range during rest of Asian and European session unless couple of data’s from UK and Germany brings some spark in the market.  However, US 4th quarter GDP data and weekly jobless claims can bring traders on their toes.


Euro @= 1.3326 = Expecting a slow day with top around 1.3350, if seen prefer Euro with STOPS 1.3385 and will buy Euro around 1.3275 with STOPS 1.3240 for 40-50 pips

GBP @ = 1.5905 = Prefer buying Cable around 1.5870's with Stops 1.5840 for 40-50 pips. Will keep you posted if I see a selling level.

GOLD @ =  $ 1661.70= I still see downside risk as long as Gold stays below $ 1668. Therefore, should top out around $ 1664-65 for $ 1655, with possibility for a test of $ 1648.  


March 28 - PrefeR SellinG EurO, GbP & GoLD


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Comment by UmairButt on March 29, 2012 at 4:24am

sir good gdpfigures will boost eu or it will drop? i think we will have a positve close for month above 3250.

Comment by asad rizvi on March 29, 2012 at 4:35am

JASON, Australian growth to too dependent on China and one bad news is good enough to known down the currency. Huge commodity export from all sort of mineral as well as crop goes to China, global crop situation looks better this time, which means other importing countries too will buy less food products from Australia. Its economy now needs rate cut, if that happens it will make the AUD less attractive from carry trade purpose. Interestingly despite ample of YEN injection by BOJ, AUD looks weak. Now technically in my view, its resistance from 1.0560 is down to 1.0480. However, rate cut pressure next week my not allow AUD to surpass 1.0450 may top out around 1.0420 is rises. It has support around 1.0320, which is likely to surrender and AUD could hit 1.0250 in coming days. This I have been telling you since last 2-weeks...Cheers     

Comment by asad rizvi on March 29, 2012 at 4:37am

Umair,  that I can tell you after the GDP number, yes trading range for the rest of the week should be 1.3180-1.3280....Pick top bottom to trade...GL

Comment by shehzana shamsi on March 29, 2012 at 5:46am

Greetings Mr Rizvi Thank u 4 ur updates will try 2 earn some pips in range trading 2day insha allah

Comment by Aditya on March 29, 2012 at 6:51am

Greeting Mr Rizvi ..gold @ 1662 .. Sell ?

Comment by asad rizvi on March 29, 2012 at 6:56am

Gold @ $ 1663 = Aditya I am waiting for $ 1665-66 that will allow STOPS at $ 1670 

Comment by Aditya on March 29, 2012 at 6:59am

Well noted Sir..Thanks for your valuable inputs 

Comment by Ossbwy on March 29, 2012 at 7:41am

hay sir i am new here and in forex also so would you like to give your opinion about euro/Usd today German unemployment rate & change news will release and also and Italian  10 year BTP auction will also release so what's your opinion about euro today against usd in Asian session, and later on US GDP and other news also will release. so tell me today euro will good against USD or usd will good against euro. what's your predication about news. Euro/Usd  euro will good and go to 1.3385 or usd will good and go to 1.3276 against Euro. 

Comment by yasir kidwai on March 29, 2012 at 7:57am

How are u Mr.Asad, German unemployment is better then expected what impact is on Gold after this Data. Thanks a Lot

Comment by asad rizvi on March 29, 2012 at 7:59am

 Hi oasisbwy, my blog will answer most of your questions. If we look at the recent IFO and few other German data, employment number should not be disappointing. Bad employment number would not help Euro.

About Italian bond auction. I have said this many times and I repeat that after last year’s poor participation in one of the German auction, I said that in future no European bond auction will fail when European policy makers have compromised on big issues like German parliament supporting ECB policy on Greece against the wishes of its people or Greek bond holders had to agree to the price conveyed to them. Or like ECB following FED’s footstep and printing notes like water continuously falling from tap without fearing repercussions or the price its taxpayers or future generation will have to pay. Therefore, European auction is no issue this year unless something new pops out. By the way I will not hesitate to sell Euro around 1.3350 with STOPs if 1.3385 surrenders. Pick your profit or apply stops is the key to trading………..GL


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