Rabobank - "Since Friday’s US payrolls data failed to clarify the outlook for Fed tapering, it also failed to bring much fresh direction for EUR/USD. We remain of the view that the Fed will probably dip its toe in the tapering pond by announcing a USD10 bln reduction in the amount of its monthly asset purchases at the September 17-18 FOMC. We also maintain that as the US economy strengthens and the Fed gets its teeth into tapering that the USD will strengthen. That said, the lack of vigour in the US labour market suggests that this scenario may still be some months away. In reflection of the disappointing US August labour report, the USD index has pulled back from its recent highs giving EUR/USD more reason to steer away from downside pressure.
(...) As a consequence of the EUR’s more resilient tone, we expect that the EUR will not give up ground easily to EUR/USD in the coming months and that without signs of accelerating growth in the US that EUR/USD could remain close to current levels. Overall, the lack of strength in the August US payrolls report makes is more likely that EUR/USD could reach year end without a convincing break of EUR/USD130.00."