Comment by Lisa on January 5, 2013 at 6:34pm

Hey there, Oasis

Over-bought & over-sold are oscillator signals, correct (?)

When trend trading (the JPYs), we ignore over-bought signals and BUY over-sold signals.

I’m trading the GBP/JPY & the USD/JPY only, ...

I don’t like too many pairs that trade when I’m sleeping. (-.-)  ZZZzzz

I’m long both pairs currently, but think I’m seeing a paradigm trend change beginning (?) :

There’s no confirmation that the trend is changing BEARish just yet, just some *hints*

(which could be fake-outs ~ that’s why *they* say “don’t be a top or bottom picker“)

Personally I think so many don’t trend trade as beginners because ...

if they aren’t already in a trend, they then have to sit on the sidelines in damn-it mode waiting.

Psychological we think we have to do something.

Sometimes no position is the most profitable, waiting until the time is right.

Comment by talisman on January 6, 2013 at 1:58am

hi oasis-trading is not a game of absolutes.  the idea is to find something that gives you an increased probability if managed correctly.  if you look at your own chart you can see it has been in oversold territory 4 times ( including this time ). in two of those occassions there was profitable opportunities .  on one occasion ( the first ) there would have been a break even. the next two had opportunity to profit.  on the present the market has not presented weakness that would be tradable so far. it may be the 1 in 4 that gives you a loss, but overall you would still be in profit.  try to think in terms of probabilities.  all rules can be broken so nothing is absolute. 

 

Comment by talisman on January 6, 2013 at 1:59am

i meant over bought not oversold - sorry

Comment by Lisa on January 6, 2013 at 3:56am

Here’s a another something to look at : 

Comment by Oasis on January 6, 2013 at 4:05am

Thanks Lisa and Talisman

I guess what I am saying is that UJ has been in overbought territory for the past 8 weeks (my chart is weekly). There has been some pullback, but no reversal. Opportunity to make profitable trades was there, but usually I would expect a better reversal from an overbought status (or that is what I thought). The rise has been relentless, even the last 2 gaps did not get filled.

You are correct if you mean that there has to be more than one signal on which to base taking a trade. Price action seems to me to be the first check point. The way the price stays above my moving average tells the story better than the oscillator.   

Comment by Peter jcp on January 6, 2013 at 12:25pm

Hi guys - just looking at that last chart Lisa posted  - thinking yes will keep an eye on that level on the UJ - and then realised the chart is not the UJ - but GJ ;-))

As Talisman had said Oasis - whether you have say 3 signals or indicators matching - or even 7 indicators all saying the same thing - the trade still might go the other way. Nothing is 100% in trading.

I think the reason for that is all the variables we forget about - ie

I can have a perfect trades set up at say 6 minutes past the hour in the London session and all my charts are agreeing and its perfect and it works. 

I then see the identical set up 2 days later in a US session at 14 minutes to the hour and its all perfect again - but its does not work. Is it due to the different time - the different session - the different price etc etc etc??.

On the UK lottery you only need 6 numbers out of 49 to will millions - but there are what about 14 million different combinations possible - before it might happen. OK we are not trading with that small probability - but its not just 3 or 10 things just lining up.

As we know - all our info is mostly lagging and therefore deceiving us. Leading Indicators can assist  and that's why divergence will beat the MA's on the chart view.

How I look upon the yen pairs is that they have not once broken under a good support level. Until that happens - they are not going to drop - but instead just pullback before further rises.

However if they go under a support level and then not break it as a resistance - that might be the start of the turn lower.

Also as Romano as mentioned - liquidity pools are important and unfortunately just when it looked that the yens might  go lower - it suddenly became supported by a great big liquidity pool of money that just  over ruled any OB's and just kept on taking price up.

Money talks - multi millions might lead to OB/OS positions - billions will - but then multi billions and trillions can just break the rules - and they can do want they want ;-)))

Have a great week 

Regards 

Peter

Comment by Lisa on January 6, 2013 at 2:34pm

Oh ~ I was *playing* with both pairs and thought I had posted the correct one

(posting while falling asleep once again)

Let me fix that c[_] ☼ :

Comment by Lisa on January 6, 2013 at 2:52pm

Another thought on perpetually looking for reversals;

it’s exciting to catch a reversal and get in at just the *right* price, ...

but there’s also something to be said for going with the flow and waiting for confirmation ...

allowing others to go 1st.

Some focus their trading plan on being “right” the majority of the time.

Others focus on maximizing profit when they are right & letting their winners run.

Different perspectives :

“After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars

I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me.

It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!

“It is no trick at all to be right on the market,” he adds.

“I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time,

and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level

that should show the greatest profit.

And their experience invariably matched mine; that is,

they made no real money out of it.

[Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.

I found it one of the hardest things to learn.

But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this

that he can make the big money."

Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ

Comment by Lisa on January 6, 2013 at 3:02pm

One more thing I was looking at on the GBP/JPY ...

I drew the Fibonacci re-tracement from the monthly high of 163.060 and the low 116.819 :

Comment by Oasis on January 6, 2013 at 3:10pm

Agreed Lisa. I have no desire to catch the very top or bottom and take every pip that might be available. A trade plan to take xx pips per day- identify a trend/wait for retrace and go with the trend  will give ample opportunity to meet your target - and that too without much stress.

Whose quote was the one you posted?

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