looking forward to your comments

Views: 611

Comment by Uschi on January 19, 2013 at 1:37pm

excuse me, i thought the lines on the chart would explain, so i do now: on this chart one candle is one week and looking at this long period time frame we are still in a downtrend and we are just on the border to leave this down trend - or not.

On a smaller time frame we are in an up trend and since my vertical line in a very tight range. What i wanted to show is that we are - in my opinion - on the point of an important decision: leaving the longterm downtrend and confirming the new uptrend, or linger in the old downtrend  a n d  new uptrend, or return  completely to the old downtrend.

I think the lines are showing what i try to say. 

This is NO forecast, it is meant as a discussion  proposal for the weekend ;-).

Thank you for your interest.     

Comment by Romano on January 19, 2013 at 9:47pm

Uschi, no need to bloat your charts with lines and MAs, just use what have u learned. In that case if u get wrong your SL is extremely small especially when compare to RR, so you should do fine over time. You can also scale to lower TF when price reach critical area where u can pinpoint with even bigger precision. It will then become like scalping only your TP will be way off the charts ;) 

What is stopping price to cross your trendlines and then retrace back and resume downtrend? Nothing. In fact, I wouldnt be surprised at all if that would be exactly what "they" want to do.

Comment by Gjert Myrestrand on January 19, 2013 at 9:51pm

I agree that we are at critical levels here. I believe we are in for some challenging times in the stock market. Maybe some tail risk has been reduced in the Eurozone, but look at the systemic problems in Europe, with continuous record unemployment numbers paired with a booming stock market. This can not last much longer. I see no reason why the stock rally should continue from here. So I believe we are entering a risk-on environment, with a stronger USD. By the way, all numbers from the US are better than those from Europe. Why should we hoard EUR when things are failing in Europe? I believe the downtrend will be confirmed next week. We are heading for 1,30.

Comment by Stephano on January 20, 2013 at 12:38am
There may be an unexpected natural distasteful, criminal revelation or other shock new item that can affect the flow of money to and from different geopolitical jurisdictions.
Comment by Haitham653 on January 20, 2013 at 6:02am

Hi Uschi

Are you using a demo account, I've already checked 3 different brokers / platforms "live accounts" , I don't see any trend lines around 1.3400 on weekly, you're using a demo account or draw the trend line in a wrong way, check my charts below, the nearest trend line on weekly is around 1.3550/1.3600 levels, it comes from 1.5143 2009 high..

Comment by Uschi on January 20, 2013 at 11:27am

good morning/noon and thank you @ all

@haitham, its a live account (closing price on friday is 3321), but i think you draw the lines much more accurately than me, i will check this out, as i´m always looking for parallels, i do some "curve fitting" , searching a kind of medium,

@lisa, yes, this indecision related to the (my!!) trendline and related to the fundamental situation, which in my opinion is reflected in these insecure movements, as neither europe, nor usa has a convincing outlook, is what i wanted to show 

and yes @ Stephano and @ all:: important to be always prepared for everything and the contrary of everything ;-)

@ romano, you know, your levels are working nicely, but as trading is a game of probability, to have a vaster view gives more evidence, look at the MA´s how they fitted, but i repeat, when you have different approaches and they fit together, in that case you have a higher probability,  

Comment by Romano on January 20, 2013 at 1:38pm

Uschi, u can see yourself now why to stick to horizontal supply and demand. U just either painted wrong trendlines or something else is wrong. If there is a problem with cache history your indicators are also calculated wrong. But levels are levels and those remain. There is neither "more evidence" nor "higher probability" from false incorrect signals. This example should be a lesson, thanks Haitham btw.

Best regards.

Comment by Uschi on January 20, 2013 at 2:07pm

@peter, haitham, yes you can trace the lines differently (actually in a classic view you must), in fact this is my picture, which i designed  searching mainly lines with most points in coincidences, so my starting point of the lower down-channel line is the low in february 2011 (at 1,3400 sic!) and the starting point of the upper down channel-line is the high of 1st of may(or so) at ca 1,4950. Then we had a low in january 2012 and an other one in august and i draw the line a little lower of the first and a little higher of the second, you can totally disagree with this "fitting" but notably the  inclination  matches perfectly with highs and lows in the middle (see chart)

in addition look at the chart with the cloud, price tries to leave the cloud, but till now, could not make it, with all this i only want to reaffirm, that in my view, we are at an interesting point of (in)decision, the decision can also happen proceeding sideways and in this way leaving slowly, the channels and the cloud, looking at the fundamentals, as mentioned above, i think i would favor this, 

 @peter my daily trading decisions are hardly influenced by this as i trade, as you do on a muuuch smaller timeframe

enjoy the rest of your sunday

Comment by Haitham653 on January 20, 2013 at 2:36pm

Hi Uschi 

I think your trend line  is right but it's weak!!

Frist you drew a trend ine from below as shown on the chart below:

then you drew a parallel line of the lower line , to complete the channel , yes that's right, but this kind of trend line is weak, since the strong trend line is usually based on 2 points (highs or lows) at least !!!

In your case you anticipate rejection from this line but as I said we can't count on that, still too early, since momentum indicators are pointing higher strongly !!!

Have a nive day..

Comment by Uschi on January 20, 2013 at 2:39pm

@ romano, yees, o.k. , sure you are right and how good for you that you are able to be soo convinced, i love your enthusiasm, but regarding me, please read, what i wrote last sunday on your blog,

...and what lisa wrote some time ago featuring "my way"

yes on the negative end its called doubt, but on the positive i call it openness

in fact, i really appreciate, that i learned with your help about this levels and i use them with profit, but at the same time i do not want to let go of all the other views -- which i know till now and which i still can learn in the future 

have a great sunday evening


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