Market seemed getting back to normal after signs of stability emerging from Europe. ISDA the Intl Swaps and Derivative Association ruled out payout on Credit default Swaps (CDS) after Greek bond restructuring as rough estimate are that investor’s outstanding, which is minus Central Banks holdings, the debt amount of Greek bond is roughly EURO 150 billion. Market reaction on CDS price trend of debt ridden countries requiring bailout will provide further direction.
Spain had no problem in raising 4.5 billion Euros in bonds in 2, 3 and 5 years. After last year’s German hick-up, no European country faced problem in raising money against issuance of Euro bond.
However, ISM data released from USA is once again depicting that US manufacturing sector may not sustain the ongoing pace, which leads to slowdown of economy.
The two happening slowed the US Dollar’s overnight Bull Run suggesting that US Dollar need more evidence of economic recovery to continue its onward journey. Today’s European data will be watched keenly and positive figure may give further boost to the European currency.
There is small risk that bad European economic number could see Euro dipping to around 1.3265 zones that may see last leg of Euro’s fall
EURO @ 1.3307 = Today I am mildly bullish for the European currency. Dips will be bought around 1.3285-95 with Stops 1.3255. Take profit around 1.3355 or wait for 1.3380
GBP @ 1.5947 = Cable is still a good buy as long as it stays above 1.5890. The risk that I see is that it may struggle to penetrate beyond 1.5995, which may force Pound Sterling to test the downside. Hence, prefer to play from bottom or topside of the range, although its needs to crack 1.6020 for further gains.
GOLD @ $ 1720.60 = Gold is still a sell on rise. Hence, should hold below $ 1728 for $ 1710 with risk for a test and possible break of $ 1702 for $ 1694. Upside break of $ 1732 may delay fall.
March 01 - RangE TradinG UntiL NeW YorK