I have never had much luck with this pair but will give this another shot. Starting with the daily chart I see price almost made it to 1.9000 but was shot down. A pin bar formation at an important level is significant to me. The 1.8900 level was also a rejection level on 17 and 31 March and price has just moved below that level on Fri. Do we have sellers in that area? It does seem possible.

Next we go down to H12 time frame. Essentially we see the same pin bar formation. the 1.8900 area did act as support earlier and now seems to be a resistance. The current move up could be interpreted as almost a 61.8% retracement of the major down move. I also note that there might be some support at 1.8830 area and that is not far away.

So, taking into consideration that price is still above the 200SMA (on the daily) and support only 50 pips away, it would be prudent to wait and see what happens next. Once we break away convincingly from this 1.8830 region, the way down is quite open and will offer plenty of flexibility on how to manage the trade. 

All this of course if the trade even gets triggered.

Views: 274

Comment by Brian Twomey on May 17, 2015 at 10:51am

Hi Oasis, GBP/CAD is another lost leader pair among GBP, that's why it doesn't or hasn't performed except in few instances where its price reached outer extremes. To respectfully build on our correlation conversation, GBP/USD Vs GBP/CAD has 0.05 correlation, barely positive, USD/CAD Vs GBP/CAD correlation minus 0.82, correct, USD/CAD Vs GBP/CAD 0.51, Viewed from correlations alone, GBP/CAD is a very ugly pair, that's why it doesn't perform, its numbers are not properly aligned but many GBP pairs are out of whack. And its why again we see GBP/USD just wandering around. EUR goes on a bull run, GBP again just lazily wanders in small and tight ranges. Its the numbers. For those that read this and understand, its like giving away the ship because there are few highly accurate trading strategies built around Correlation trades. Quick look 1.8810 GBP/CAD must break, its overbought intraday, I will look further. 

Comment by Brian Twomey on May 17, 2015 at 11:20am

Oasis, GBP/CAD Shorts must remain below 1.8902, 1.8918, 1.9011, 1.9027 and further out 1.9111, Below 1.8810 and 1.8802 breaks target 1.8722, so 1.8902 - 1.8810 range, overbought intraday so shorts look okay but careful at 1.8810 and 1.8802, also levels here should be good all week

Comment by Pip Logic on May 17, 2015 at 12:10pm

more uncharted water to the north (3 month void)

Comment by Oasis on May 17, 2015 at 12:43pm

Brian, if you read my post you will note that I do not want to go short unless 8830 is convincingly broken. No rush to enter here as there is lots of room. Agree with you Pip Logic, a short in the 94300 area is so much better. The market has been weird (as per me) lately, and anything can happen. I find it tough to call, just like the levels where many pairs are atm. This is just one of them.  

Comment by Pip Logic on May 17, 2015 at 2:36pm

For me it's all about which "time frame" you are riding, are you a bug surfing on a ripple or a man waiting to for the big wave, then add to the mix the style, are you a "trend trader" or a "counter trend" trader, then add execution technique, are you someone that enters on a "stop", a "limit"  or instant at the "market", or all three. Both the bug and the man can make tons of money, if they have a profitable technique to take advantage of "setups". 

Comment by Oasis on May 17, 2015 at 2:55pm

Well, I think whether I am the 'bug' or the 'man' is of no consequence and should be of no interest to you. I have described what I am thinking in some details including what needs to happen for me to trade this. If you want this community to benefit from your view of the market, then it would be good if you could describe your view using whatever time frame you trade on. If you have no interest in this pair, then that can be your view too. 

Comment by Pip Logic on May 17, 2015 at 5:42pm

"Well, I think whether I am the 'bug' or the 'man' is of no consequence"

so time frame is inconsequential 

"should be of no interest to you." 

why did you post here with comments turned on

"If you want this community to benefit from your view of the market, then it would be good if you could describe your view using whatever time frame you trade on."

1 hour is ok, seems tame

my view is looking for low risk setups

"If you have no interest in this pair, then that can be your view too. "

my interest is trading, EUR/USD

you say "I have never had much luck with this pair but will give this another shot."

at the risk of offending you, (which I feel I have already done) does "luck" sound like a trade plan?

Comment by Pip Logic on May 17, 2015 at 5:48pm

Can someone please explain to me how to make money from a 200SMA or any MA

Comment by Pip Logic on May 17, 2015 at 5:52pm

Comment by Oasis on May 19, 2015 at 3:34pm

Trying a small position on break below and retest of 1.900. Will exit quickly if trade goes the other way.

Comment

You need to be a member of Forex Social Network to add comments!

Members

© 2019   Created by FXStreet.   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service