JP Morgan - "Risk scenarios to accompany Q4 2012 FX forecasts
USD
Risk bias: Balanced in Q4
Potential trigger events: FOMC meetings on Oct 24 and Dec 12; China data each month; China Communist Party Congress this fall (no date set yet); Greek negotiations with troika; ECB meetings on Oct 4, Nov 8 and Dec 6; EU leaders’ summit October 18-19.
Scenarios
USD bearish: (1) US 10-yr inflation breakevens reach 3%, triggering a run on USD; (2) Spain applies for an EFSF credit line by early October, prompting ECB bond buying and substantially reducing European credit risk; and (3) China announces substantial monetary/fiscal easing in Q4 after the leadership transition, thus driving commodity and Asian FX higher
USD bullish: (1) US growth slows below 1% in anticipation of fiscal cliff (USD bullish versus commodity FX, EM Asia and Latam); (2) Europe ends Greece’s financing program out of frustration with new government; (3) Italy election campaign generates concerns about structural reform and budget discipline once Monti’s government steps down; (4) Chinese economy fails to accelerate in Q4; and (5) Israel strikes Iran or Mid-East protests spread."

JPM forecast: Exchange rates vs. U.S dollar
Actual change in local FX vs USD
Sep28; Dec 12; Mar 13; Jun 13; Sep 13
EUR 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.32 1.34
JPY 77.6 78 79 79 79
GBP 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.63 1.65
AUD 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06
CAD 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.94
NZD 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79
JPM USD index 80.3 80.7 80.9 80.5 79.9
DXY 79.5 79.2 79.3 78.2 77.2