JP Morgan - "The GBP/USD forecast profile has been changed to 1.50 for Q1, 1.47 for Q2, and 1.51 for Q3 and Q4. We would stress that it is sentiment that has turned rather than fundamentals – these were always negative even as GBP appreciated throughout the euro crisis. We expect further downward pressure on GBP, particularly as uncertainty around monetary and fiscal policy intensifies around the budget (March 20) and the change of BoE governor (July 1).
(...) The strong reversal right from key-Fib.-resistance at 1.6390 (int. 76.4 %) in Cable at the beginning of the year followed by the dynamic break below long-term triangle support (4 years!) at 1.5721 has very negative implications, calling for the resumption of the pre-2009 bear trend. Weekly neckline support at 1.5113 could trigger a temporary bounce, which looks to be capped at 1.5404 or at 1.5532 (int. 38.2 % on 2 scales) though. Only above the latter we’d see room for a broader 2nd wave recovery to 1.5755 (50 %) and possibly to 1.6085 (76.4 %) at a later stage. A break below 1.5133 would on the other hand call for a straight extension to 1.4821 and possibly to 1.4339 (765.4 % on 2 different scales)."