JP Morgan - "While the commodity currencies continue to trade with a clear range bias against the USD, the persistent weakness versus EUR over the past several weeks has led to a break of several critical levels resulting in a renewed trending bias. The key highlight over the past week is the extension in EUR/AUD above the important 1.30/1.30323 resistance zone. This area represents the 2012 high (Feb) as well as the critical pivot level going back to the range lows during the second half of 2011. More importantly, this advance has confirmed the medium term base and inverse head and shoulders pattern above the 2012 low. Given the short term overbought setup, the risk of some initial pullback is high but corrective retracements are viewed as buying opportunities. In turn, we see potential for this cross to extend into the 1.38 area, near the November ’11 high, if not the critical 1.41/1.43 zone which includes the March '11 peak. The 1.27 area should now act as key support.
Similarly, EUR/CAD has maintained the breakout above the critical 1.3500 resistance zone. This also includes the 2012 high and former range lows from 2H’11. With the price action maintaining strong trending bias, the upside risks have increased. While the initial focus is on the 1.3760 breakdown area from November '11, the more important targets rest in the 1.4185/1.4380 area - includes the 2011 highs. EUR/NZD has been the laggard so far, but the push above the key 1.6040/1.6220 zone is still consistent with the overall upside bias. However, the trend is likely to be a grind higher given how resilient NZD has been against the USD and on the crosses."