JP Morgan - "Last months failure to break c/B-wave at 1.3483/1.3521 (76.4 %/pivot) completed a classical zigzag countertrend rally which had been launched in April from 1.2746. That said the ground is prepared for a broader C-wave down to 1.2487/36 (C = A, int. 76.4 %, red scenario) which is expected to unfold in the classical 5-wave pattern. We however can't ignore the bullish blue scenario which keeps its right to exist as long as the potential wave 2 target at 1.2919 (minor 76.4 %) is not broken decisively.
But even favoring the bearish red and green scenarios we currently see the risk of missing a minor 2nd wave rebound to 1.3370 (minor 76.4 %) as long as the daily lagging line hasn’t displayed two consecutive lower daily closes (10pm CET) below the Ichimoku-cloud. Such a 2nd wave rebound would require a break above 1.3217/21 (minor 38.2 % on 2 scales) to be confirmed though. A decisive break below 1.3107 would on the other hand open challenge the lower T-junction at 1.2919 and 1.2777 (weekly neckline) straight away."