Inside the Currency Market: Trade Recommendations #17-20, EU, UC, NJ, UJ, GJ, EJ

Since Oct 25th, Trades 17 - 20 concludes the month long exercise with my friend Peter to prove: 1. Exchange rate targets are predictable. 2. I can hit targets based on mathematical calculations employing 8 different moving averages. 3. I can hit 20 of 20 trade targets and profit without loss. So far, 15 posted targets hit exactly with two additional trades for 1156? pips thereabouts. Granted, a few entries weren't perfect yet targets hit. Constructive criticism is accepted. The operable word is constructive.

Never in my imagination did I suspect these trades would become the subject of intense debate and scrutiny. I proffer with hope that new traders would become better in their chosen craft and all would garner a greater understanding of currency pairs and price movements.

I reiterate, trades offered are educational therefore please manage own risk. Targets will hit, that's written in mathematical stone but market events may cause price deviations so must wait until prices continue their intended price path to target.

To all the good people and traders at Fxstreet, I offer thank you's. To Francesc Riverola and the team at FX Street I offer thank you's for all support. Without further ado

NZD/JPY = Current sell 65.83 target 65.05 is minus 198. This trade will be brought back to health and target.
Sell 67.81, target 65.83, + 198 pips. Breakeven would establish. Continue sell 65.83, target 65.05, + 78. Or remain in original 67.81 sell to 65.05 target for + 276.
Downside targets= 67.33, 67.10, 66.86, 66.30, 66.26, 65.78, 65.23.

USD/JPY = Sell 81.30 target 80.56 currently minus 107 pips. Back to health and target.
Sell 82.37, target 81.30 + 107, at breakeven. Continue to 80.56 + 181. Exit at 81.30 and continue to target 80.56 + 74. Downside targets = 82.28, 81.80, 81.11, 80.97, 80.27,80.07.

GBP/JPY = Sell 132.03 target 131.07, + 96. All Downside targets= 131.59, 131.07, 130.29, 129.41, 129.46, 128.43, 127.68.

EUR/JPY Sell 106.87 Target 105.74 + 113. All downside Targets = 106.29, 105.74, 105.59, 104.92, 104.33, 103.50, 102.68.

EUR/USD Sell 1.2975 Target 1.2915 +60. All downside targets = 1.2915, 1.2891, 1.2857, 1.2832.

USD/CHF Long 0.9273 Target 0.9344 +71. All Upside targets = 0.9293, 0.9296, 0.9344, 0.9345, 0.9369, 0.9390

For my friends in India.

EUR/INR Sell 71.933. Targets = 71.341, 71.042, 70.740, 70.507, 70.423, 70.385, 70.261.

I'm Brian Twomey, my book is Inside the Currency Market: Mechanics, Valuation and Strategies. The book, reviews, interviews are found at btwomey.com. Reviews are offered by the Australian Investors Association and Yale University professor/market trader Brenda Jubin. Thank you

18 members like this

Comment by Jason on November 25, 2012 at 4:56am: Well done sir.
Wish you all the best.

Comment by Honest Sarjono on November 25, 2012 at 5:00am: Hello all,

With my respect to all traders here, and also my respect to Brian who have good will to share his way on math technical indicator such as SD, and at last trade recommendation #16 USD/JPY preferred to serious OB (overbought).

Till today I am not a handyman critique ideas anyone, and also I am not a volunteer :).

For any ideas or suggestions that appear in every post here I will always view it on the good side that they want to share, or are helping others. If it turns out there was a mistake, then it's something we can improve each other.
The view from me about Brian's trading style of mathematics is just the nature of this indicator. As was all of us know, there are indicators that repaint (based on zigzag, etc), and there are also lagging indicators (based on MAs, etc), then in my opinion the Standard Deviation is a family of MAs, and so are the OB / OS.
see detail at http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/laggingindicator.asp and http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/177.asp # axzz2DCmGuLfk

Large family of MAs would be problematic if there was no trend (sideways), which is where the market is consolidating or waiting for something to happen before taking a decision to enter the market (buy / sell) the resulting price spikes up or down.

Therefore, Standard Deviation should be supported by other indicators such as the power of the fundamental insights, trendline / channel lines, etc, including a good MM.
Regardless of mistakes that have happened in # 16 (because perfection will never exist), then we have to keep thinking positive and suggested to Brian that did not stop doing research and share it.

Sharing is where we give and receive. So, in addition to Brian still give, then Brian should also be able to receive from others. Because learning in this world will never end.

Even today, although I have 22 years of programming experience and so I really understand the meaning of logic, but I am still learning and always stay alert when facing the market. I know all of you did it :)

Good luck for #17 and do all the best to all of members here. Because when we want to help others, then God will bless.

Regards,

Honest.

Comment by ian macdonald on November 25, 2012 at 5:03am: Thanks for update Brian. Have read most of the comments and your own replies over the past 4 or 5 trades ( joined Forexstreet 10 days ago). It's been very very interesting and enlightening . I'll look forward to price action over next week or so and certainly be looking for entries that suit me - and with a close eye on the price levels you are giving

Comment by Brian Twomey on November 25, 2012 at 5:34am: Hi Ian, many thank you's to you. And many thank you's, y muchas gracias a my amigo Honest

Comment by Noel on November 25, 2012 at 9:26am: Brian, I started trading 2 months ago and never did I expect to find such wonderful people prepared to share their ideas/thoughts. In that respect I have to thank you particularly Brian for how you have enlightened me to so much.I'm in the UJ and NJ trades but have been out once due to my stop loss from original levels. This was my choice and it now has me in at better levels. I really cant thank you enough for sharing your expertise.

Comment by john on November 25, 2012 at 10:46am: thank you.

Personnaly, I do not trust MA results, but your technical system is very interesting

Comment by Peter jcp on November 25, 2012 at 11:26am: Morning Brian - Well even though I am one of the dissenters of being able to predict 100% accuracy in the currency markets - I have just liked this latest blog. With you concluding your last forecasts for the 20 trades, I must say you have been very courageous to make all these predictions with exact entry points and exits etc - in advance and on the main forum - Well Done.

Going back over 15 years ago,during my fairly brief time of working for a large multi-national conglomerate at a European Director level, not many guys would enter into whats known as - "COB" time. For those who don't know this business phrase - it was a very important one - it could either be the making of them - sending them up the corporate ladder to the top - or - suddenly they could be "ostracised" - and eventually them losing their position and having to leave the company and move on.

The letters "COB" stand for putting a very important part of a man's anatomy on the proverbial "chopping block" - painful if it goes wrong ;-)))

If any of the members were to say to me now - OK - Peter you think you know how to trade - do you think these latest three forecast on top of the existing two will go Brian's way - or do you disagree?

My genuine answer would have to be -

"I really don't know"

However, I am sure I will end up trading a few of those five and I am also fairly sure the trades that I take in them - will be agreeing with the direction they are moving at that time - all depending on the prevailing circumstances etc - .ie -

1.Will the important Eurozone meeting tomorrow have just a 30 min effect - or a session/ ongoing effect on price?

2. Will some large players in buys - take profits Monday or Tuesday?

3. Will these same players take advantage of all the OB's and sell strongly?

4. Alternatively - do these guys think - no we can see enough stops to attack and take prices up another 100- 200 pips before selling off majorly at the end of the week / month ??

5. On the TA side - will resistances above hold and stop more moves up and will supports below let go?.

6. On your EU sell Brian - your target is still really in the up channel - and so after a 50 -80 pip fall - it could then during the next few days hit 3100+

7. On the yen pairs - I see them reacting slightly different - with a couple like the GJ and UJ favouring strong falls - but the NJ - different ??

I am pleased that any newer traders following Brian's forecast now can clearly see there are big risks attached to trading and they should stick to their own MM. Remember if you are trading 2% stake of your capital on a live trade - don't place same on all 5 trades - as that exposes you to 10% of your capital - and if things went wrong you could easily lose half of your account plus - without suitable stops.

You certainly cannot blame Brian if they go wrong so please remember that.

Good Luck - should be another interesting week ;-))

Regards

Peter

Comment by Brian Twomey on November 25, 2012 at 12:58pm: Hi Peter, If the Euro meeting is a bombshell breakthrough, the Euro will react strongly. if its another blase blase outcome, we usually see a 20 pips difference. That says business as usual for Eurocrats. Remember your Dna comment. That comment pertains to my advice to new traders to never trade UJ unless you know what you are doing and because the japanese are the world's smartest traders. What makes the Japanese look like the smart traders is the DNA of UJ. Its quite a different arrangement than their Major nation's brothers.

Even I got caught by those 487c%$*&*B nice people. They are slick but brilliant. Now my targets will hit no doubt but apologies for the time it takes.

Comment by Brian Twomey on November 25, 2012 at 1:02pm: Hi John, Thank you respectfully for your comments. My major conundrum is in the explanation and methodologies behind the trade rec's. I can't do it in a few words, its impossible.