I last reported an historic average Feb 22 at 1.21186. Today's average now sits at 1.21229, a difference of 43 pips.
Last reported target was 1.2830, now 1.2832, 2 pip difference and a level that must break in order to see lower prices. Last reported upper end price target was 1.4002, today's change is now targeted at 1.4001, a 1 pip difference.
Further upper end targets next season: 1.3542 and 1.4252. Last reported targets were 1.3542 and 1.4254, a 2 pip difference in the upper end. Why the focus on the upper bounds is corporates hedge mainly at the 16 week level, approximatey 100 day average so the curve must be viewed and traded in advance. Purpose for the 100 day is it falls in line with month end on the 20th every month as well it doesn't interfere with various nation's Fiscal years. Last week of the month is rebalancing to reposition for the next 16 weeks.
My rock solidly constructed Probability Bands at the 95 and 97 % confidence intervals: 1.3514 and 1.0731, and 1.3777 and 1.0468. Last reported Bands at 95 and 97% intervals were 1.3513 and 1.0723 and 1.3777 - 1.0460.
Near term Bands not fully updated yet from Friday at 95% = 1.3246 - 1.3047, 97%:= 1.3265 - 1.3028 and 99% = 1.3278 - 1.3015. Bands move generally for EU 20 pips daily so a guide. One can see how not only price closed Friday inside the 99% band at 1.3019 but the reason why price had to retrace from the lows to hit inside the bands. When prices fall at or outside the bands, the market offers a free trade as prices must trade back inside the bands. The fact that we're at 99% says EU is heading higher, my target Friday was 1.3096 but will change by a few pips once I refactor for market opening.
I'm Brian Twomey author of Wiley / Bloomberg Press Inside the Currency Market: Mechanics, Valuation and Strategies. Statistically inclined and only statistically inclined may also view "Using the Z Score to Trade Foreign Exchange and other Financial Instruments