When the EUR/USD broke 1.1402 then 1.1242, it was trapped between 1.1242 - 1.1144 and 1.1126 in wait for the next signal. It found it and both levels broke.
The point at 1.1402 is the 50 year average, 1.1242 the 55 year average and 1.1144 and 1.1126 is the 60 and 61.5 year averages. 60 and 61 year averages equates to 720 and 740 months and dates to 1954 and 1953. The EUR/USD even broke 1.1099 which is 63 years worth of yearly averages. Current EUR/USD price is more than uncharted territory. A 50 year average never breaks, to see a 61 year average break doesn't exist as a concept but it reveals EUR is driven strictly by the ECB and the desire to lower exchange rates.
The 1.1126 and 1.1144 breaks begins a new trend and the EUR is heading much lower with targets over time at 0.9802, 0.9538, 0.9393 and 0.9363. Rough supports begin at 0.9995, 0.9928, 0.9924 and 0.9812. Targets still sees the EUR/USD at top of the range and its quite achievable provided the ECB maintains its QE, lower interest and exchange rate policies.
From current 1.0837 price, supports below include 1.0773 and 1.0618. Two significant bottoms exist and must break to see EUR lower. Those points are found at 1.0536 and 1.0525. A break of 1.0525, sees next supports at 1.0403, 1.0145 and 1.0093.
To see the EUR/USD higher, breaks must occur at 1.1025 and 1.1072. Those points would then act as supports in a range from 1.1025, 1.1072 to 1.1126 and 1.1144. The point at 1.1072 is last week;s moving line at 1.1230 and dropped 158 pips. As long as that line remains below 1.1126 and 1.1144, we remain in sell rally mode. Sell rally mode means all EUR pairs.
The only way this forecast changes is if European news turns positive particularly higher Inflation or if Big Sis Yellen decides to halt interest rate hikes. So far neither scenario is expected.
More trades, info, posted here during the week
Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com