When the EUR/USD broke 1.1402 then 1.1242, it was trapped between 1.1242 - 1.1144 and 1.1126 in wait for the next signal. It found it and both levels broke.

 The point at 1.1402 is the 50 year average, 1.1242 the 55 year average and 1.1144 and 1.1126 is the 60 and 61.5 year averages. 60 and 61 year averages equates to 720 and 740 months and dates to 1954 and 1953. The EUR/USD even broke 1.1099 which is 63 years worth of yearly averages. Current EUR/USD price is more than uncharted territory. A 50 year average never breaks, to see a 61 year average break doesn't exist as a concept but it reveals EUR is driven strictly by the ECB and the desire to lower exchange rates. 

 The 1.1126 and 1.1144 breaks begins a new trend and the EUR is heading much lower with targets over time at 0.9802, 0.9538, 0.9393 and 0.9363. Rough supports begin at 0.9995, 0.9928, 0.9924 and 0.9812.  Targets still sees the EUR/USD at top of the range and its quite achievable provided the ECB maintains its QE, lower interest and exchange rate policies. 

 From current 1.0837 price, supports below include 1.0773 and 1.0618. Two significant bottoms exist and must break to see EUR lower. Those points are found at 1.0536 and 1.0525. A break of 1.0525, sees  next supports at 1.0403, 1.0145 and 1.0093. 

 To see the EUR/USD higher, breaks must occur at 1.1025 and 1.1072. Those points would then act as supports in a range from 1.1025, 1.1072 to 1.1126 and 1.1144. The point at 1.1072 is last week;s moving line at 1.1230 and dropped 158 pips. As long as that line remains below 1.1126 and 1.1144, we remain in sell rally mode. Sell rally mode means all EUR pairs. 

 The only way this forecast changes is if European news turns positive particularly higher Inflation or if Big Sis Yellen decides to halt interest rate hikes. So far neither scenario is expected. 

  More trades, info, posted here during the week

    Brian Twomey Inside the Currency Market, btwomey.com


Views: 1156

Comment by Brian Twomey on March 8, 2015 at 3:26pm

Risk off, so far, CAD/ZAR current 9.5401, range 9.5094 - 9.6187, AUD/CAD current 0.9742, range 0.9689 - 0.9772, short ranges, oversold both, supports the Long USD/CAD, short EUR/USD, last time USD/CAD saw current prices was 3 months in 2009, then 2005 but traditionally USD/CAD can easily handle hgiher prices. Highest ever close 1.5500's, Middle range found at 1.2700. 

 EUR/CAD big line 1.3701, EUR/JPY 132.61 - 130.24, EUR/AUD supported so far by 1.3726

Comment by Oasis on March 8, 2015 at 3:51pm

Brian the ECB sovereign bond purchase program starts on Monday. Do you expect this event to be the trigger any significant impulsive (down) move in the EUR? 

Comment by Brian Twomey on March 8, 2015 at 4:03pm

Not yet Oasis, we must see which bonds, how long for ECB to hold, and which bonds they will purchase that is above the negative deposit rate as is their intention. This is a dark dark road for the ECB but QE is not the total trigger driving the EUR straight down. Its the continued drop in the interest rates. As the ECB buys more and more bonds, interest rates will continue its drop and this will take the EUR down much further. 

Comment by Oasis on March 8, 2015 at 4:15pm

Makes sense, thanks Brian.

Comment by Brian Twomey on March 9, 2015 at 12:22am

Thank you Brother Dale "Friend of Forex" Live Analysis Room, Fxstreet.com

Comment by Brian Twomey on March 9, 2015 at 9:59am

EUR/USD Monthly uptrends since 1993 Peak every 10.21 months Vs 8.28 down, Trend change 9.25 months, current monthly trend 12 straight down months, only 5 times in EUR history we saw 12 down months, every trend down or up reverses completely, yes completely in time, EUR natural and historic direction is up, same Vs German Duetschemark DEM/USD 

Comment by Brian Twomey on March 9, 2015 at 10:08am

I will report AUD as well as NZD levels to monitor RBNZ, OCR 2.75 is a big line for OCR, that's Natural, equilibrium Interest Rate level. I will look closer at OCR and report here, RBNZ has room if they wish to cut. We;'ll see

Comment by Brian Twomey on March 9, 2015 at 10:32am

NZD/USD Long Short Lines 0.7360, 0.7362, 0.7373, 0.7385, Dead stop line 0.7385, good for 2 hours

Comment by Brian Twomey on March 9, 2015 at 10:54am

AUD/USD Long short Lines 0.7713, 0.7714, 0.7718, 0.7732, 0.7746, Dead Stop 0.7746

Comment by Brian Twomey on March 9, 2015 at 10:57am

EUR/USD Shorts below 1.0966, good for 2 hours


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