We are in the vicinity of day 14 with a stuck EU trading within 100 pips of its range. I'm as concerned as the rest so I worked out a few forecasts. I'll skip the blah blah long winded methodologies except to offer preliminaries. But know these forecasts are mathematically correct and represent exact standard deviations so a break of any points in this distribution up or down represent important statistical significance. A break above says we're heading higher while a break below says lower.
If I take my distribution of averages representing 5-253 days and take the mean of my distribution, points above : 1.3317,1.3337, 1.3358, 1.3378, 1.3398, 1.3418.
Points below: 1.3276
Points above within the individual averages: 1.3313, 1.3327, 1.3350.
Points below: 1.3299, 1.3291, 1.3288, 1.3280, 1.3247, 1.3209. 1.3166.
Points in the distribution of prices represented either as an individual average or the full distribution assumes prices will be normally distributed and aligned based on their properly intended price paths.
A point for consideration. Points 1.3291 and 1.3299 and 1.3288 are close enough to be considered rock solid support. When points are solidly bunched together, support points here are like steel walls. What must occur is either a rocket ship of a news announcement breaks the barrier or prices can't break so must drift higher. Bunched points are solid scalping levels and the order of the day until average prices and SD points spread apart and allow prices to drift along their intended price paths. Its the answer why EU is currently stuck for many days
We have an EU short because price rises creates more overbought conditions as seen in the overall numbers.
Respectfully again I'm not in the signal or coaching business and ask inquiries to be directed to others. Glad to answer comments, questions or concerns.
I'm Brian Twomey author of Inside the Currency Market: Mechanics, Valuation and Strategies.